The second leg of the Europa League 2024/25 playoff between Roma (Italy) and Porto (Portugal) will take place on February 20 at the Stadio Olimpico. The score of the first match was 1-1. Roma vs. Porto: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Roma
Claudio Ranieri's side could not determine a winner in their first away encounter against Porto, ending in a 1-1 draw. As a result, Roma have managed not to lose in 6 of their last 7 Europa League matches (3 wins, 3 draws). The Italians now need a win in regular time to advance to the next round. Notably, at home, Roma performed successfully in the group stage: 3 wins, 1 draw, and only one goal conceded. It's also worth mentioning that the club has reached at least the semifinals of the Europa League three times in the last five seasons.
- The team has not lost in regular time in 15 of their last 16 home matches in the Europa League (13 wins, 2 draws).
- At least one of the opponents failed to score in 90 minutes in 9 of the last 12 home games in this European competition.
- No more than two goals were scored in regular time in 4 of Roma's last 5 home matches in the Europa League.
Predicted lineup for Roma (4-4-2)
Mile Svilar – Gianluca Mancini, Evan Ndicka, Mehmet Zeki Celik, Angelino – Lorenzo Pellegrini, Manu Kone, Bryan Cristante, Alexis Saelemaekers – Artem Dovbyk, Paulo Dybala.
Defender Devyne Rensch will not play due to injury. Midfielder Bryan Cristante and forward Alexis Saelemaekers will miss the match due to suspension.
Porto
Martin Anselmi's side have avoided defeat for the fourth time in their last five Europa League matches (2 wins, 2 draws). However, Porto has not scored more than one goal in three consecutive matches in this European competition. To advance to the next round, the team needs to win after 90 minutes, and in case of a draw, extra time will be played. Notably, in the last 11 seasons, the Portuguese have only reached the Europa League Round of 16 once.
- The club has won in regular time in 6 of their last 7 away matches in the Europa League (3 draws, 3 losses).
- Both opponents scored in 90 minutes in 7 of the last 8 away matches in this European competition.
- The Portuguese scored exactly one or two goals in regular time in their last eight away matches in the Europa League.
Predicted lineup for Porto (4-3-3)
Diogo Costa – Francisco Moura, Otavio, Joao Mario Lopes, Tiago Djalo – Rodrigo Mora, Stephen Eustaquio, Alan Varela – Otavio, Goncalo Borges, Fabio Vieira.
Defender Martim Fernandes and midfielder Marko Grujic will miss the match due to injuries.
Referee
Francois Letexier (France)
Matches – 8 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 45;
Average yellow cards per match – 5.6;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 50%.
Roma vs. Porto: Match Prediction
Roma will likely look to capitalize on their home advantage to tip the scales in their favor against the Portuguese side. Roma's home record is indeed impressive: in their last 16 home Europa League matches, they failed to win in regular time only three times. The club tends to favor an attacking style and scores frequently: in 11 of these matches, Roma breached the opposition's defense at least twice. Moreover, Roma already faced another Portuguese club, Braga, in the group stage and scored three unanswered goals.
The Portuguese, even away, play actively and create many chances. This style helps them score regularly, but they make too many defensive errors. In their last 17 away Europa League matches, Porto managed a clean sheet only once, conceding at least two goals in 14 of those games.
I expect a productive game from the hosts and anticipate at least two goals from them. My prediction: Roma total over 1.5 goals
