The second leg of the 2024/25 Champions League quarter-final between Real Madrid (Spain) and Arsenal (England) will take place on April 16 at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. The first match ended 3-0 in favor of Arsenal. Real Madrid vs. Arsenal: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Real Madrid
In the first meeting, the Spaniards lost 0-3. This defeat marked Carlo Ancelotti's side's second consecutive loss in this European competition, with the team failing to score in regular time once again. To advance to the semi-finals, Madrid needs to thrash the English side by at least four goals. If the team wins by exactly three goals, extra time will be played. Notably, Real Madrid has only once in its history overcome a three-goal deficit in the main European tournament. This happened in 1976 against Derby County (the Spaniards advanced due to a win in extra time).
- At least three goals have been scored in 7 of Real Madrid's last 8 matches in this European competition.
- The Spaniards have won 6 of their last 7 home matches in the Champions League.
- Both teams scored in Real Madrid's last 10 home games in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Real Madrid (4-3-3)
Thibaut Courtois – Raul Asensio, Antonio Rudiger, Aurelien Tchouameni, David Alaba – Federico Valverde, Dani Ceballos, Jude Bellingham – Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo Goes, Kylian Mbappe.
Goalkeeper Andriy Lunin, defenders Ferland Mendy, Eder Militao, and Dani Carvajal are out due to injuries. Midfielder Eduardo Camavinga will miss the match due to suspension.
Arsenal
By defeating Real Madrid in the first match, the English side extended their unbeaten run in the Champions League to seven matches (6 wins and 1 draw). During this stretch, the Londoners have achieved five large-margin victories. Notably, in the first match, Declan Rice scored two goals from free kicks, a feat no one had achieved before in the Champions League playoffs. Now Mikel Arteta's side can afford to lose by one or two goals. Furthermore, Arsenal has never been eliminated from a European competition after winning the first match by at least three goals.
- At least three goals have been scored in Arsenal's last seven Champions League games.
- The team has scored at least twice in their last seven matches in this European competition.
- The Londoners have conceded exactly one goal in 8 of their last 9 away matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Arsenal (4-3-3)
David Raya – Miles Lewis-Skelly, Jurrien Timber, William Saliba, Jakub Kiwior – Oleksandr Zinchenko, Declan Rice, Martin Odegaard – Mikel Merino, Gabriel Martinelli, Bukayo Saka.
Forwards Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus, midfielder Jorginho, and defenders Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel Magalhaes, and Takehiro Tomiyasu will not play due to injuries. Midfielder Thomas Partey's participation is questionable.
Referee
Francois Letexier (France)
Matches – 11 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 55;
Average yellow cards per match – 5;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 36%.
Match Prediction: Real Madrid vs. Arsenal
For Carlo Ancelotti's side, this season could end in complete failure. Madrid has already lost to Barcelona in the Spanish Super Cup final, and they are likely to fall short to the Catalans in La Liga. Now, in the Champions League, they face an almost impossible task – to overturn a three-goal deficit. Nevertheless, I believe there is a slim chance to thrash the English side, but they will need to play offensively throughout the match.
Real Madrid plays exceptionally well at home in this European competition. In their last 19 home matches in the Champions League, the club has lost only once in regular time (15 wins and 3 draws), and they have scored in all these matches. In 7 of their last 8 home matches in this tournament, Madrid has scored at least twice. However, the Spaniards have conceded in their last ten home matches in the Champions League.
Mikel Arteta is well aware of Real Madrid's strength, so the Arsenal manager is likely to rely on counter-attacks. I believe the English side will be able to catch the Madrid team off guard. The Gunners have not left the field without scoring in their last seven consecutive Champions League matches, scoring at least twice in all of them.
Considering all these factors, I propose the prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
