The second leg of the 2025/26 UEFA Conference League round-of-16 tie between Rayo Vallecano (Spain) and Samsunspor (Turkey) will take place on 19 March at Campo de Vallecas in Madrid. The score in the first leg was 3:1 in favour of Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano vs Samsunspor: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Rayo Vallecano
The win secured in Turkey last Thursday was the club’s third in a row in the Conference League. Overall, Rayo Vallecano have won seven of their last nine matches in this European campaign, with only one defeat in that spell. It is worth noting that both of the Spaniards’ rare slip-ups in this season’s Conference League have come away from home. It is also characteristic that the team have scored in all nine of their previous matches in this tournament. At the same time, across the last six Conference League games, the Madrid outfit have managed to keep a clean sheet only once.
- Each of Rayo Vallecano’s last six Conference League matches has gone over the goal line.
- The club have avoided defeat with a (+1.5) handicap in nine straight games in this competition.
- The Spaniards have scored at least two goals in seven of their last eight Conference League matches.
Potential Rayo Vallecano Lineup (4-3-3)*
Augusto Batalla – Andrei Ratiu, Florian Lejeune, Luis Felipe, Pep Chavarria – Pathé Ciss, Unai Lopez, Isi Palazon – Ilias Akhomach, Alvaro Garcia, Aleman.
Ilias Akhomach’s involvement is in doubt.
Samsunspor
A week ago, the team failed to extend a short two-match winning run in the Conference League. Samsunspor have now won just two of their last six European matches in general, while three of their last five games have ended in defeat. Note that in this Conference League season the Turks have scored everywhere except in an away match against Mainz in round six of the league phase (0:2). Moreover, at their own stadium the club conceded more against Rayo Vallecano than in the three previous Conference League matches combined (2 goals).
- Samsunspor have failed to score more than once in four of their last five Conference League matches.
- The team’s run of decisive results in this tournament has reached five matches (2 wins, 3 defeats).
- The Turks have avoided defeat with a (+1.5) handicap in seven of their last nine Conference League matches.
Potential Samsunspor Lineup (4-5-1)*
Okan Kocuk – Rick van Drongelen, Lubomir Satka, Logi Tomasson, Yunus Emre Cift – Carlo Holse, Olivier Ntcham, Yosafat Mendes, Antoine Makoumbou, Celil Yuksel – Marius Mouandilmadji.
Midfielders Georges Assoumou and Afonso Souza will miss out through injury. Olivier Ntcham’s participation is in doubt.
Referee
Sascha Stegemann (Germany)
Matches – 6 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second bookings) – 17;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.8;
Red cards shown – 0;
Fouls per match on average – 25;
Penalties – 33%.
Rayo Vallecano vs Samsunspor: Match Prediction
Rayo Vallecano achieved a near-perfect result away from home, and now the team have every chance of cementing their superiority on home soil. The Spaniards have won seven of their last nine matches in this season’s Conference League. Notably, whenever the club do stumble, it happens strictly on the road. At home, the Madrid team not only avoid slip-ups, but in three of their last four Conference League matches Rayo Vallecano have won by a comfortable margin of at least two goals. On average, the team score exactly three goals per 90 minutes.
Samsunspor need to pull off something special after their home defeat, but there is a strong chance it will be even harder in Spain. The Turks have won only two of their last six Conference League matches overall, and in that spell the team have beaten only Shkendija of North Macedonia. In three of their last five European games, Samsunspor did not even manage to secure a draw. Most likely, the same will happen in Madrid.
Prediction: Rayo Vallecano to win
* For each team, the starting XI listed is from their most recent match in this tournament.
