The second leg of the 2025/26 Conference League round of 16 tie between Rakow Czestochowa (Poland) and Fiorentina (Italy) will take place on 19 March at the Zaglebie Sports Park. The score in the first leg was 2:1 in favour of Fiorentina. Rakow Czestochowa vs Fiorentina: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Rakow Czestochowa
After losing the first match 1:2, the Polish side saw their nine-game unbeaten run in the Conference League come to an end (seven wins, two draws). In addition, for the first time in this season’s competition, the team conceded more than one goal. At the same time, Rakow Czestochowa’s scoring streak in the Conference League has reached four matches. To progress to the next round, Lukasz Tomczyk’s men need to win the return leg. It is also worth noting that the club have won four consecutive home matches in the Conference League.
- No more than two goals were scored in five of Rakow Czestochowa’s previous seven Conference League matches.
- On home soil in this competition, the Polish side have not conceded more than one goal in 12 consecutive matches.
- The club opened the scoring in nine of their last 10 home games in the Conference League.
Potential Rakow Czestochowa Lineup (3-4-3)*
Oliwer Zych – Efstratios Svarnas, Fran Tudor, Bogdan Racovitan – Oskar Repka, Karol Struski, Michael Ameyaw, Tomasz Pienko – Jonatan Braut Brunes, Ivi Lopez, Patryk Makuch.
Fiorentina
The Florence side claimed a come-from-behind win for the second time in this season’s competition. Now the team need to protect the advantage they have earned. At the same time, in their last seven Conference League matches, the Italian side have suffered four defeats. However, three of those losses were by a one-goal margin. If a similar scenario plays out again, extra time will await the opponents. Let us add that Fiorentina have conceded in six of their last seven Conference League games.
- At least three goals were scored in six of the Florence side’s previous eight Conference League matches.
- The team have not drawn for eight consecutive away matches in this competition (four wins, four defeats).
- The club found the net in 11 of their last 12 away games in the Conference League.
Potential Fiorentina Lineup (4-5-1)*
Oliwer Christensen – Luca Ranieri, Niccolo Fortini, Pietro Comuzzo, Robin Gosens – Fabiano Parisi, Giovanni Fabbian, Rolando Mandragora, Cher Ndour, Jacopo Fazzini – Roberto Piccoli.
Forward Moise Kean, defender Tarik Lamptey and goalkeeper Luca Lezzerini are injured.
Referee
Jose Munuera Montero (Spain)
Matches – 5 (international fixtures, 2023/24 - 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second bookings) – 18;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.6;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 40%.
Rakow Czestochowa vs Fiorentina: Match Prediction
The Polish side’s results in the Conference League have been impressive. However, allowance must be made for the level of the opposition. During their nine-match unbeaten run, Lukasz Tomczyk’s men did not face a single representative from one of Europe’s top five leagues. Their very first match against such an opponent ended in defeat, and the Florence side held a significant edge. Yes, the Italian side were at home, but the players will still have fresh memories of their previous trip to Poland, when they thrashed Jagiellonia Bialystok 3:0. What is more, that team are above Rakow Czestochowa in the standings of the Polish domestic league.
And, in general, Rakow Czestochowa are in decline. The club have won just two of their last eight official matches (two draws, four defeats), with one of those victories coming against the Polish league’s outright bottom side. Fiorentina, meanwhile, have moved out of the relegation zone in the Serie A, so they can throw themselves into the international arena without hesitation. The visitors simply need to avoid defeat, something the Italian side have managed in 14 of their previous 15 away matches in the Conference League.
Prediction: Fiorentina, double chance
* For each team, the starting XI listed is from their last match in this competition.
