The Matchday 6 fixture of the Champions League 2025/26 group stage between Karabakh (Azerbaijan) and Ajax (Netherlands) will take place on December 10 at the Tofig Bahramov Republican Stadium in Baku. Karabakh – Ajax: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Karabakh
After losing away to Napoli (0-2) in the last round, Gurban Gurbanov's side extended their winless run in the Champions League to three matches (one draw, two defeats), having begun the group stage with two victories. The Azerbaijanis failed to score in Italy for the first time in their last 11 Champions League appearances. Karabakh have conceded at least twice in five of their last six Champions League matches. With seven points, the club sit 19th in the overall standings. They have also failed to beat Dutch opposition in their last five international meetings (three draws, two defeats).
- Both teams scored in six of Karabakh's last eight Champions League fixtures.
- At home the side are unbeaten in 14 of their last 17 Champions League matches (9 wins, 5 draws).
- In five of their last seven home games in this competition the club scored exactly one or two goals.
Predicted lineup Karabakh (4-5-1)
Mateusz Kochalski – Bakhlul Mustafazade, Kevin Medina, Mateus Silva, Elvin Jafarguliev – Marko Janković, Abdella Zubir, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicalho, Emmanuel Addai – Camilo Duran.
Midfielder Kadi is injured.
Ajax
A change of head coach has failed to galvanise the Dutch side. In the last round Ajax were beaten at home by Benfica (0-2), their fifth consecutive defeat in the Champions League. The club are enduring a record eight-game losing streak in European competition. In the group stage Ajax failed to score in four of five matches and have conceded at least two goals in every game; by both measures they rank among the worst in the tournament. They remain the only team with zero points and occupy the bottom spot.
- The club conceded first in seven of their previous eight Champions League matches.
- Away from home they have failed to win in five of their last six matches in this competition (one draw, four defeats).
- Ajax scored in eight of their previous nine away games in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup Ajax (4-3-3)
Vitezslav Jaros – Aron Baumann, Ko Itakura, Jurriën Timber, Owen Wijndal – Jurri Regeer, Davy Klaassen, Oskar Gluh – Ryan Gravenberch, Mika Godts, Kasper Dolberg.
Midfielders James McConnell, Kenneth Taylor, Steven Bergwijn, defenders Gerald Alders, Josip Šutalo and striker Wout Weghorst are injured.
Referee
Rade Obrenović (Slovenia)
Matches – 8 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 41;
Average yellow cards per match – 5.1;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 26;
Penalties – 0%.
Prediction for Karabakh vs. Ajax
Karabakh have endured a testing run, facing top-five opposition in three consecutive matches and picking up points only in the home draw with Chelsea. Now they face a significantly less intimidating opponent and will benefit from a strong home record: unbeaten in 14 of their last 17 Champions League home games (9 wins, 5 draws). Their prolonged scoring run in the competition was ended last time out, yet they still scored twice against the Londoners. Overall, goals at home have not been an issue — Karabakh scored 12 in five home fixtures in this campaign.
Ajax’s slump leaves them with little margin for error. Defeats have piled up and their defence has been particularly porous on the road, shipping nine goals in two away Champions League fixtures this season. The visitors will likely be forced to chase the game, which could expose them further at the back.
My prediction: Karabakh not to lose and Over 1.5 goals
