The Matchday 3 clash in the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between PSV (Netherlands) and Napoli (Italy) will take place on October 21 at the Philips Stadium in Eindhoven. PSV vs. Napoli: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
PSV
Peter Bosz's side began the current Champions League group stage with a home defeat to tournament newcomers Union (Belgium) (1-3). However, PSV managed to partially redeem themselves in the second round by sharing points with Bayer away (1-1). Nevertheless, the club has failed to win 5 of their last 6 Champions League matches (2 draws, 3 losses) and has not kept a clean sheet in ten consecutive games. They have one point and are in 27th place in the standings. Notably, PSV has not lost in 9 of their last 12 home matches against Italian clubs in European competitions (7 wins, 2 draws).
- The club has not lost in 11 of their last 13 home matches in the Champions League (7 wins, 4 draws).
- At least four goals have been scored in 5 of the team's last 6 home games in this European competition.
- PSV scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 8 of their last 11 home matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for PSV (4-3-3)
Matej Kovar – Anass Salah-Eddine, Ryan Flamingo, Jarek Gasirowski, Mauro Junior – Jerdy Schouten, Joey Veerman, Ismael Saibari – Ivan Perisic, Guus Til, Dennis Man.
Defenders Wessel Koon and Kilian Sildillia, as well as forward Ruben van Bommel, are injured.
Napoli
Antonio Conte's side secured their first victory in this season's Champions League by defeating Sporting 2-1 at home in the last round. As a result, Napoli managed to win only their second match in their last seven Champions League appearances (2 draws, 3 losses). Additionally, in 10 of their last 12 matches in this tournament, Napoli failed to keep a clean sheet. The team occupies the 19th position in the standings with three points.
- The club's uncompromising away streak in the Champions League stands at 11 matches (5 wins, 6 losses).
- The team scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 5 of their last 7 away matches in this European competition.
- Napoli conceded in 7 of their last 9 away matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Napoli (4-5-1)
Alex Meret – Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Juan Jesus, Sam Beukema, Mathias Olivera – Leonardo Spinazzola, Billy Gilmour, Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Kevin De Bruyne, David Neres – Lorenzo Lucca.
Defender Amir Rrahmani, midfielder Stanislav Lobotka, and forwards Rasmus Højlund and Romelu Lukaku will miss the match due to injuries. Additionally, midfielder Scott McTominay's participation is in doubt.
Referee
Daniel Siebert (Switzerland)
Matches – 15 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 74;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.9;
Red cards shown – 6;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 13%.
PSV vs. Napoli: Match Prediction
At home, the Dutch side tends to play aggressively forward regardless of the level of opposition. Thanks to their open style, PSV regularly finds the net: in their last 13 home matches in the Champions League, the team has never left the field without scoring. Moreover, in seven of these matches, they scored at least two goals. However, PSV lacks a reliable defense: in 13 of their last 15 home matches in this European competition, they failed to keep a clean sheet, conceding 10 goals in their last two home Champions League matches.
Napoli also does not usually sit back and focuses heavily on attacking. In their last 13 away matches in the Champions League, Napoli failed to score in only three games, and in six of these matches, they scored at least two goals. However, the Italians often suffer from defensive errors: in the same period, Napoli kept a clean sheet only three times, conceding a total of nine goals in their last three away Champions League games.
I expect this to be a high-scoring encounter, so my prediction: Total over 2.5 goals
