The first leg of the Russian Cup 2025/26 RPL Path quarter-final between Orenburg and Krasnodar will take place on November 5 at the Gazovik Stadium. Orenburg vs. Krasnodar: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Orenburg
The team finished the group stage in second place. Orenburg did not lose in regular time in 3 out of 6 matches (2 wins, 1 draw) and ended up two points ahead of their closest pursuer. However, the club had the worst defensive record in Group A, conceding 14 goals. Among all participants in the main round, only Sochi had a worse record (18). It's worth noting that Orenburg last advanced past the RPL Path quarter-finals in the 2023/24 season.
- At least one opponent failed to score in 5 of Orenburg's last 7 Russian Cup games.
- In 4 of their last 5 home matches in this tournament, the team conceded no more than one goal.
- Orenburg has not won in regular time in 5 of their last 7 home matches in the national Cup (1 draw, 4 losses).
Predicted lineup for Orenburg (3-4-3)
Nikolay Sysuev – Artem Kasimov, Stanislav Oleynik, Nikolay Koserik – Du Queiroz, Stanislav Poroykov, Pavel Gorelov, Vladislav Kamilov – Gedeon Guzina, Atsamaz Revazov, Emirjan Gyurlyuk.
Forward Atsamaz Revazov is suspended. Defenders Fahd Mufi, Emil Tsenov, and Georgy Zotov are injured.
Krasnodar
Krasnodar emerged as the winners of Group B. Murad Musaev's side began the group stage with a defeat, but it remained their only loss (4 wins and 1 draw in regular time). Notably, in 4 matches during their unbeaten run, Krasnodar scored at least twice. Overall, the club scored 14 goals, the best tally in the group. Additionally, Krasnodar has advanced past the group stage for the fourth consecutive time.
- At least three goals were scored in 9 of the team's last 10 national Cup games.
- Krasnodar has not lost in regular time in 5 of their last 7 away matches in this tournament (4 wins, 1 draw).
- The club conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches in the Russian Cup.
Predicted lineup for Krasnodar (4-5-1)
Alexander Koryakin – Valentin Paltsev, Artyom Khmarin, Vitor Tormena, Giovanni Gonzalez – Alexander Chernikov, Kevin Lenini, Danila Kozlov, Nikita Krivtsov, Gaetan Perrin – Gustavo Furtado.
Forwards Moses Kobnan, Gustavo Furtado, and defender Jubal are injured.
Referee
Vasily Kazartsev (Russia)
Matches – 5 (Russian Cup, 2023/24 - 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 30;
Average yellow cards per match – 6;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 28;
Penalties – 20%.
Match Prediction: Orenburg vs. Krasnodar
Orenburg finished only third in terms of scoring in their group. Nevertheless, the team scores quite regularly in the national Cup, especially in home games. At home in this tournament, the club has scored in 6 of their last 8 matches, with Orenburg finding the net at least twice in 5 of those games. It's worth noting that in the last RPL round, the team also showed good attacking play, scoring three times against Sochi.
Krasnodar displays excellent defensive play in the RPL, but in the Russian Cup, the team allows a lot at their own goal. In only 3 of their last 11 matches in this tournament has Krasnodar managed to keep a clean sheet. Notably, in away games, Krasnodar has conceded 11 goals in their last 6 national Cup matches. Additionally, for Murad Musaev's side, the match against Orenburg will take place amid a challenging period in the Premier League, which I believe will be their main focus.
My prediction: Orenburg Individual Total Over 0.5
