Northern Ireland vs Belarus: betting odds 16 Nov 2024

Matchday 5 in the Nations League between Northern Ireland and Belarus in Group 3 of League C will take place on November 15 at Windsor Park in Belfast. Northern Ireland vs. Belarus: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Referee: Luis Godinho (Portugal)

Matches – 9 (International matches, 2023/24–2024/25);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 29;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.2;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 26;

Penalties – 11%.

Predicted lineups for Northern Ireland vs. Belarus

Northern Ireland (3-4-3): Bailey Peacock-Farrell – Jamal Lewis, Daniel Ballard, Trai Hume – George Saville, Brodie Spencer, Shea Charles, Jordan Thompson – Josh Magennis, Dion Charles, Callum Marshall.

Belarus (3-4-3): Fyodor Lapukhov – Alexander Martynovich, Sergey Politevich, Pavel Zabelin – Kirill Pechenin, Max Ebong, Vadim Pigas, Yevgeny Yablonsky – Herman Barkovsky, Valery Gromyko, Yevgeny Shikavka.

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland achieved their biggest ever win in the Nations League, thrashing Bulgaria 5-0 in the last round. This victory was their second in the current tournament edition (1 draw, 1 loss). These results put Michael O'Neill's team at the top of the group, one point ahead of their upcoming opponent. Northern Ireland also leads the group in terms of goals scored, with seven goals. A win in the upcoming game will guarantee them first place in the group.

• At least one team failed to score in Northern Ireland's last four Nations League matches.
• The team is unbeaten in four home matches in this tournament (3 wins, 1 draw), winning the last three.
• Northern Ireland has scored at least two goals in their last four home Nations League matches.

Belarus

Belarus ended their last two tournament matches in draws, with goalless results against Northern Ireland (0-0) and Luxembourg (1-1). The team remains unbeaten in the current Nations League campaign (1 win, 3 draws) and is just one point behind Northern Ireland in the group standings. Belarus is one of five teams in League C that have not lost this season. Notably, matches involving Belarus have the lowest average goals scored in the entire division C, with an average of 0.8 goals per game.

Midfielder Valery Bocherov and forwards Vitaly Lisakovich and Pavel Savitsky did not receive visas and will not travel with the team for the upcoming match.

• No more than two goals have been scored in 9 of Belarus's last 10 Nations League matches.
• The team's unbeaten run in the Nations League stands at five matches (1 win, 4 draws).
• Belarus has won with a handicap (+1.5) in 9 of their last 10 away matches in this tournament.

Northern Ireland vs. Belarus: Match Prediction

Bookmakers consider the hosts overwhelming favorites for the upcoming match, likely based on Northern Ireland's last Nations League result, where they defeated Bulgaria 5-0. However, the result of that match does not fully reflect the nature of the game; Michael O'Neill's team did not dominate as much as the scoreline suggests, with an xG of only 1.49 compared to Bulgaria's 1.22. Moreover, Northern Ireland's upcoming opponent rarely loses in the Nations League and has not been defeated in this tournament edition.

Additionally, in the first-round match, Belarus managed to challenge Northern Ireland, ending in a 0-0 draw. Therefore, I disagree with the bookmakers regarding the balance of power. Yes, the hosts should be favorites, but not overwhelmingly so. I believe that the visitors, unbeaten in five Nations League matches, can provide strong resistance. Even if they don't earn points, they shouldn't lose heavily to Northern Ireland.

Furthermore, Belarus has not lost by more than one goal in 14 of their last 15 Nations League matches, while Northern Ireland has not won by such a margin in 18 of their last 20 matches in this tournament. In this Nations League edition, Carlos Alos Ferrer's team has conceded only one goal. Therefore, my prediction is "Belarus with a handicap (+1.5)".