The return leg of the 2025/26 Champions League play-off tie between Newcastle United (England) and Qarabag FK (Azerbaijan) will take place on 24 February at St James' Park. The score in the first leg was 6:1 in favour of Newcastle United. Newcastle United vs Qarabag FK: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Newcastle United
Newcastle United settled the question of reaching the round of 16 in the first leg. The team thrashed a strong-at-home Qarabag FK 6:1. It is worth noting that Anthony Gordon scored four goals in the first half, becoming only the second player in the tournament’s history to achieve that feat. Newcastle United’s unbeaten run in the Champions League has now reached four matches (two wins, two draws), while their scoring streak has extended to 11 games. However, in four of their last five Champions League matches, the club have also conceded. To progress to the next round, Eddie Howe’s men can even lose the upcoming match by as many as four goals.
- At least three goals have been scored in eight of the English club’s last 10 games in this competition.
- On home soil in the Champions League, the team have a seven-match run without draws (four wins, three defeats).
- Newcastle United have opened the scoring in six of their last eight Champions League matches.
Potential Newcastle United Lineup (4-3-3)
Nick Pope – Dan Burn, Kieran Trippier, Lewis Hall, Sven Botman – Jacob Ramsey, Joe Willock, Sandro Tonali – Nick Woltemade, Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes.
In the treatment room for the team are midfielder Bruno Guimaraes, and defenders Tino Livramento and Fabian Schar. Defender Malick Thiaw is suspended.
Qarabag FK
The defeat in the previous match was the Azerbaijani side’s fourth in their last five Champions League games (one win), and it was also the heaviest home defeat they have ever suffered in this tournament. In addition, Qarabag FK have conceded at least two goals in seven straight Champions League matches. To reach the round of 16, the club need to beat the English side by a margin of six goals. If they win by exactly five, the tie will go to extra time. The Agdam outfit not so long ago beat Ludogorets by such a margin, but they only managed it in extra time.
- Qarabag FK have scored in 13 of their last 15 Champions League matches.
- The team have failed to win six of their last seven games in this tournament (one draw, five defeats).
- A goal in both halves has been scored in 12 of the last 13 Champions League matches involving the Azerbaijani club.
Potential Qarabag FK Lineup (4-5-1)
Mateusz Kochalski – Bahlul Mustafazade, Kevin Medina, Mateus Silva, Elvin Jafarguliyev – Marko Jankovic, Abdellah Zoubir, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicalho, Jony Montiel – Camilo Duran.
Referee
Davide Massa (Italy)
Matches – 11 (International fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 39;
Yellow cards per match (average) – 3.5;
Red cards shown – 4;
Fouls per match (average) – 24;
Penalties – 36%.
Newcastle United vs Qarabag FK: Match Prediction
In their last two Champions League matches, the Azerbaijani side have faced English opposition, and those encounters are unlikely to be forgotten quickly by Qarabag FK. Gurban Gurbanov’s men conceded six goals in both games, and the only thing left for the team before their campaign in the tournament ends is to go out with a bang. We assume the Agdam side will try to start the match aggressively in an attempt to score an early goal. But in that scenario, the chances of conceding will also be high.
Qarabag FK conceded twice by the 11th minute in the previous match. In Liverpool, by the midway point of the opening 45 minutes, the Agdam side had also allowed the opposition to score twice. It gives the impression that the team lack concentration at the start of matches. Earlier in this Champions League campaign, early goals against the Azerbaijani club were also scored by Chelsea, Eintracht Frankfurt and Benfica. The same pattern was repeated in the qualifying rounds too, even against far less dangerous opponents.
Prediction: Goal scored between 1 and 30 minutes – Yes
