The Matchday 4 clash in the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Newcastle (England) and Athletic (Spain) will take place on November 5 at St. James' Park. Newcastle vs. Athletic: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Newcastle
The English side has only faced one setback in the current Champions League campaign. In the first round, they hosted Barcelona and lost 1-2. However, in the following two matches, Eddie Howe's team confidently defeated both of their opponents. They first triumphed away against Union (4-0) and then thrashed Benfica at home (3-0). With 6 points, the team is in the top 8, but they are closely followed by six other teams with the same number of points but a significantly worse goal difference.
- The club has not won in 5 of their last 7 matches in this tournament (1 draw and 4 losses).
- Exactly two or three goals have been scored in 5 of Newcastle's last 6 Champions League matches.
- The English side has not lost in the first half in five consecutive matches in this European competition (4 wins and 1 draw).
Predicted lineup for Newcastle (4-4-2)
Nick Pope – Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Dan Burn – Bruno Guimarães, Lewis Miley, Joelinton – Jacob Murphy, Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade.
Defender Valentino Livramento and forward Yoane Wissa will miss the game due to injuries.
Athletic
The Basque team secured their first victory in the current group stage only in the last round. They hosted Qarabag and won 3-1. Notably, the Caucasian team scored an early goal in the 1st minute, but the Spaniards quickly recovered from the unexpected start. In the first two matches of the tournament, their opponents were significantly stronger, leading to defeats: at home against Arsenal (0-2) and away against Borussia Dortmund (1-4). The Basques are currently in 21st place in the standings.
- No more than three goals have been scored in 7 of Athletic's last 9 matches in this European competition.
- The Spanish side has not won in 4 of their last 5 away Champions League matches (1 draw and 3 losses).
- In their last five away matches in this tournament, the Basques have scored exactly 1 goal.
Predicted lineup for Athletic (4-2-3-1)
Unai Simón – Yuri Berchiche, Aymeric Laporte, Daniel Vivian, Andoni Gorosabel – Mikel Haurregui, Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta – Lekue, Jesús Areso, Álex Berenguer – Gorka Guruzeta.
Unavailable due to injuries: defender Unai Echelus, midfielders Oihan Sancet, Nico Williams, and Beñat Prados, forwards Iñaki Williams and Maroán Sanadi.
Referee
Ivan Kružliak (Slovakia)
Matches – 13 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 62;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.8;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 31%.
Newcastle vs. Athletic: Match Prediction
Both teams have minimal experience in the main stage of the Champions League. Nevertheless, both are aiming to finish among the top 24. To achieve this, they need to excel in attack. The English side has scored in all five of their previous matches in this European competition. Notably, only five clubs have scored more than Newcastle in the current group stage.
For the hosts, goals are expected from Anthony Gordon, who became the first Newcastle player to score in three consecutive matches in the main Champions League draw. I also expect accurate strikes from the visitors, who have failed to score only against Arsenal in their last five matches in this European competition. Additionally, both teams have shown a noticeable decline in defense in their national tournaments: Newcastle conceded in their last three Premier League matches against mid-table and lower-ranked teams, while Athletic allowed goals in 8 of their last 9 La Liga games.
My prediction: Both teams to score – yes
