The second leg of the English League Cup semi-final between Newcastle and Arsenal will take place on February 5 at St James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne. The first match ended 2-0 in favor of Newcastle. Newcastle vs. Arsenal: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Newcastle
Eddie Howe's side surprised in the first leg of the two-legged tie, defeating the Gunners on their own turf with a 2-0 scoreline. To advance to the final, the club only needs to avoid losing by more than one goal. In the current English League Cup campaign, the team has already knocked out three Premier League representatives, eliminating Brentford, Chelsea, and Nottingham Forest from the tournament. If Newcastle manages to overcome Arsenal, they will reach the final for the third time in their history.
- The club is unbeaten in regular time in eight consecutive matches in this tournament (6 wins and 2 draws).
- No more than two goals have been scored in 90 minutes in 11 of Newcastle's last 14 English League Cup games.
- The club has a seven-match winning streak at home in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Newcastle (4-3-3)
Martin Dubravka – Lewis Hall, Valentino Livramento, Sven Botman, Dan Burn – Joelinton, Sandro Tonali, Joseph Willock – Jacob Murphy, Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon.
Arsenal
The Londoners last won the English League Cup trophy in 1993. Repeating that success will be challenging: to reach the final, the team needs to beat their opponent by a large margin, and that too on their field. If the match ends with a victory for the Gunners by exactly two goals, a penalty shootout will be held. Notably, in the current season, Mikel Arteta's side has only suffered two defeats at the official level by more than one goal (previously the club lost away to Bournemouth in the Premier League – 0:2).
- At least two goals have been scored in 12 of Arsenal's last 14 English League Cup games.
- At least one team failed to score in regular time in 6 of the Gunners' last 7 away matches in this tournament.
- In the last 10 away games in this Cup, the Londoners have lost only once in 90 minutes (5 wins and 4 draws).
Predicted lineup for Arsenal (4-3-3)
David Raya – William Saliba, Thomas Partey, Jurrien Timber, Gabriel Magalhaes – Declan Rice, Martin Odegaard, Miles Lewis-Skelly – Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard, Kai Havertz.
Referee
Simon Hooper (England)
Matches – 16 (Premier League, English Cups, and English League Cup, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 68;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.3;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 6%.
Newcastle vs. Arsenal: Match Prediction
Eddie Howe's side performs well on their home ground, scoring frequently and rarely losing. However, this season Newcastle has already faltered in league matches against Brighton, West Ham, and Bournemouth, so the Gunners still have a chance to make a comeback, and for that, they need to score.
In 15 of the last 17 away matches in the Premier League and English League Cup, Arsenal has scored, but they have also conceded in 7 of the last 8 away games in both these tournaments. Meanwhile, Newcastle has scored in their last eight games at St James' Park in the Premier League and English Cups, with the club netting at least two goals in six of those matches.
I anticipate that the second leg will be more eventful than the first, so my prediction: Both teams to score – yes
