The Matchday 5 Serie A encounter between AC Milan and Napoli will take place on September 28 at the San Siro Stadium. AC Milan vs. Napoli: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
AC Milan
Massimiliano Allegri's side had no trouble in their last outing against Udinese, securing a 3-0 away victory. This win marked AC Milan's seventh victory in their last nine Serie A matches (2 losses) and their first by a large margin in this stretch. Additionally, the team has kept clean sheets in their last three league matches. In the standings, Milan sits third with nine points. Notably, in terms of goals conceded this Serie A season, AC Milan (2) trails only AS Roma (1).
- The club has not lost in 13 of their last 16 home Serie A matches (7 wins, 6 draws).
- The team has scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 8 of their last 10 home league matches.
- AC Milan has not conceded more than one goal in 7 of their last 10 home Serie A games.
Predicted lineup for AC Milan (3-5-2)
Pietro Terracciano – Matteo Gabbia, Fikayo Tomori, Strahinja Pavlovic – Pervis Estupinan, Youssouf Fofana, Luka Modric, Adrien Rabiot, Alexis Saelemaekers – Christian Pulisic, Santiago Gimenez.
Midfielder Ardon Jashari will miss the game due to injury.
Napoli
In their last match, Antonio Conte's side faced tough opposition from Pisa at home but managed to secure another three points with a 3-2 victory. This result extended Napoli's winning streak in the league to five matches. Additionally, the team scored more than two goals in consecutive Serie A games for the first time since 2023. Napoli has accumulated 12 points and leads the standings. Notably, in terms of goals scored this season, Napoli (9) is second only to Inter Milan (11).
- The team is unbeaten in their last seven away Serie A matches (4 wins, 3 draws).
- No more than two goals have been scored in 6 of Napoli's last 7 away league games.
- Napoli has kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 7 away Serie A matches.
Predicted lineup for Napoli (4-5-1)
Alex Meret – Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Sam Beukema, Alessandro Buongiorno, Leonardo Spinazzola – Matteo Politano, Kevin De Bruyne, Billy Gilmour, Eljif Elmas, Scott McTominay – Rasmus Højlund.
Defender Alessandro Buongiorno and forward Romelu Lukaku will miss the match due to injuries.
Referee
Daniele Chiffi (Italy)
Matches – 18 (Serie A, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 66;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.7;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 28%.
Match Prediction: AC Milan vs. Napoli
In my view, Massimiliano Allegri's side will find it challenging to make a significant impact in the attack against Napoli. AC Milan has not been particularly prolific at home, scoring more than one goal in just five of their last 14 home Serie A matches. The most formidable opponents they managed to score at least twice against in this period were Fiorentina and Bologna.
Napoli displays solid defensive prowess and limits their opponents' chances. Even away from home, the team remains confident, conceding in only two of their last seven away league matches, each time allowing no more than one goal. Additionally, in their last ten head-to-head encounters with AC Milan at San Siro in Serie A, Napoli has kept six clean sheets and never allowed more than one goal.
I anticipate another strong defensive performance from Napoli, so my prediction: AC Milan Individual Total Under 1.5
