The Coupe de France quarter-final between Marseille and Toulouse will take place on 4 March at the Orange Velodrome. Marseille vs Toulouse: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Marseille
Marseille have literally knocked out all of their previous opponents. First, they thrashed lower-division sides Bourg-Peronnas (6:0) and Bayeux (9:0) away from home, before then unexpectedly seeing off Rennes with ease at home (3:0). Interestingly, in the 21st century the hosts have reached the final three times, but have lost on each occasion. And over the last five years, they are through to the quarter-finals for the third time, yet have still been unable to go any further. Last season, meanwhile, the club were limited to the last 32, where they lost to Lille on penalties.
- The team are unbeaten in regular time in the Coupe de France for 11 matches (8 wins and 3 draws).
- Marseille have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 7 matches in this competition.
- On their own ground, the club are unbeaten in regular time in their last 12 Coupe de France matches (6 wins and 6 draws).
Potential Marseille Lineup (4-2-3-1)*
Jeffrey de Lange – Timothy Weah, Facundo Medina, Emerson, Leonardo Balerdi – Quinten Timber, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg – Mason Greenwood, Ethan Nwaneri, Igor Paixao – Amine Gouiri.
Midfielder Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg is out due to suspension.
Toulouse
Toulouse did not come through to this round without difficulty. The team first got past Lyon-La Duchere away from home (2:1) and Angers (1:1, on pens 6:5), before beating Amiens at home in the previous round (1:0). In their history, the visitors have won the Coupe de France trophy just once, and that happened three years ago. Last season, they went out at the last-16 stage (they were weaker than Guingamp – 0:2). Incidentally, that defeat is their only one in regular time in the club’s last 13 Coupe de France matches (10 wins and 3 draws).
- Exactly two or three goals have been scored in 4 of the team’s previous 5 matches in this tournament.
- Toulouse have opened the scoring in 11 of their last 14 Coupe de France matches.
- Away from home, the club are unbeaten in regular time for 10 matches (6 wins and 4 draws).
Potential Toulouse Lineup (3-4-2-1)*
Hjalte Haug – Rasmus Nicolaisen, Mark McKenzie, Seni Koumbassa – Warren Kamansi, Mario Sauer, Cristian Casseres, Aron Donnum – Yann Gboho, Julian Vignolo – Emersonn.
Midfielder Aron Donnum will miss the match through suspension.
Referee
Jeremy Pignard (France)
Matches – 12 (Ligue 1 and the Coupe de France, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 53;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.4;
Red cards shown – 6;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 50%.
Marseille vs Toulouse: Match Prediction
In this upcoming quarter-final, we favour Marseille. The home side came through to this stage of the tournament very easily and without fuss, scoring 18 goals in three matches and conceding none. Toulouse, by contrast, had to grind their way through the previous three rounds, including against lower-division opponents. In addition, the game will be played at the Orange Velodrome, and at their own stadium Marseille have suffered only one defeat in their last 16 matches across Ligue 1 and the Coupe de France (12 wins and 3 draws).
Toulouse find it much harder to play away from home than in their own stadium. What is more, the team have three consecutive away defeats in Ligue 1, and across those matches they have scored just once. Besides that, it is impossible not to highlight how these sides fare against one another, and here it is total Marseille domination. The hosts have not lost to Toulouse in 26 straight meetings in the league and the Coupe de France (15 wins and 11 draws). And at the Orange Velodrome, the hosts have won 5 of the last 7 head-to-head matches in Ligue 1 (2 draws).
Prediction: Marseille to win
* For each team, the starting XI listed is from their previous match in this competition.
