The Coupe de France quarter-final between Marseille and Toulouse will take place on 4 March at the Velodrome. Marseille vs Toulouse: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Marseille
Marseille have quite literally knocked out all of their previous opponents. First, the away side thrashed lower-division outfits Bourges-Peronnas (6:0) and Bayeux (9:0), before then cruising past Rennes at home (3:0) in what was an unexpectedly comfortable win. Interestingly, in the 21st century Marseille have reached the final three times, only to lose on each occasion. Over the last five years, meanwhile, they have made the quarter-finals for the third time, yet have still been unable to go any further. Last season, the club’s run ended as early as the last 32, where they lost to Lille on penalties.
- The team are unbeaten in normal time in the Coupe de France across 11 matches (8 wins and 3 draws).
- Marseille have kept a clean sheet in five of their last seven games in this competition.
- On home soil, the club are unbeaten in normal time in their last 12 Coupe de France matches (6 wins and 6 draws).
Potential Marseille Lineup (4-2-3-1)*
Jeffrey de Lange – Timothy Weah, Facundo Medina, Emerson, Leonardo Balerdi – Quinten Timber, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg – Mason Greenwood, Ethan Nwaneri, Igor Paixao – Amine Gouiri.
Toulouse
Toulouse did not reach the current round without a struggle. The team first beat Lyon-La Duchere away from home (2:1) and then got past Angers (1:1, won on pens 6:5), before edging Amiens at home (1:0) in the previous round. In their history, Toulouse have only won the cup trophy once, and that came three years ago. Last season, the team went out in the last 16 (losing to Guingamp 0:2). Incidentally, that defeat is their only loss in normal time in the club’s last 13 matches in the Coupe de France (10 wins and 3 draws).
- Exactly two or three goals have been scored in four of the team’s last five games in this competition.
- Toulouse have opened the scoring in 11 of their last 14 Coupe de France matches.
- Away from home, the club are unbeaten in normal time across 10 matches (6 wins and 4 draws).
Potential Toulouse Lineup (3-4-2-1)*
Kjetil Haug – Rasmus Nicolaisen, Mark McKenzie, Senny Kumbassa – Warren Kamansi, Mario Sauer, Christian Casseres, Aron Donnum – Yann Gboho, Julian Vignolo – Emersonn.
Referee
Jeremie Pignard (France)
Matches – 12 (Ligue 1 and the Coupe de France, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second bookings) – 53;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.4;
Red cards shown – 6;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 50%.
Marseille vs Toulouse: Match Prediction
In this upcoming quarter-final, we favour Marseille. The hosts made light work of reaching this stage of the competition, scoring 18 goals across three matches and conceding none in the process. Toulouse, by contrast, had a far tougher time in the previous three rounds, even against opponents from lower divisions. On top of that, the match will be played at the Velodrome, and at their own ground Marseille have suffered just one defeat in their previous 16 matches across Ligue 1 and the Coupe de France (12 wins and 3 draws).
It is much harder for Toulouse to play away from home than it is on their own patch. What is more, the team have lost three straight away games in Ligue 1, scoring only once in those matches. In addition, the head-to-head record cannot be overlooked, and it points to total domination by Marseille. Marseille are unbeaten against Toulouse in 26 consecutive meetings across the league and the Coupe de France (15 wins and 11 draws). At the Velodrome, meanwhile, the hosts have won five of the last seven head-to-head matches in Ligue 1 (2 draws).
Prediction: Marseille to win
* For each team, the starting XI listed is from its last match in this competition.
