The Matchday 5 clash in the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Marseille (France) and Newcastle (England) will take place on November 25 at the Velodrome Stadium. Marseille vs. Newcastle: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Marseille
The French side is outside the top 24 in the Champions League group stage but is just one point away from the qualifying zone. Roberto De Zerbi's team has managed only one victory so far, which came at home against Ajax (4-0), currently the tournament's weakest team. In other matches, Marseille lost to Real Madrid and Sporting (both 1-2) and Atalanta (0-1).
- Marseille's uncompromising streak in this tournament stands at 30 matches – 7 wins and 23 losses.
- At least 3 goals have been scored in 6 of Marseille's last 8 Champions League games.
- The club has not scored more than 1 goal in 12 of their last 16 home matches in this European competition.
Predicted lineup for Marseille (5-4-1)
Geronimo Rulli – Emerson Palmieri, Benjamin Pavard, Angel Gomes, CJ Egan-Riley, Ulisses Garcia – Matt O'Riley, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Mason Greenwood, Igor Paixao – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
Newcastle
The English side is facing significant challenges in the Premier League, but their Champions League campaign is going well. The team expectedly lost their first match against Barcelona (1-2) but then made the most of their schedule, which featured games against mid-tier European teams. They thrashed Union (4-0) away and defeated Benfica (3-0) and Athletic (2-0) at home. As a result, they have secured a spot in the top 8 with nine points. Notably, only Arsenal and Inter have conceded fewer goals than Newcastle (2 goals) in the group stage.
- Exactly two or three goals have been scored in 6 of Newcastle's last 7 matches in this tournament.
- In this European competition, Newcastle has played 4 away games, avoiding defeat in 3 of them (1 win and 2 draws).
- The club has not conceded or lost in the first half in their last 6 Champions League matches (5 wins and 1 draw).
Predicted lineup for Newcastle (4-3-3)
Nick Pope – Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Dan Burn – Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali, Joelinton – Harvey Barnes, Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade.
Referee
Maurizio Mariani (Italy)
Matches – 16 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 54;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.4;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 31%.
Match Prediction: Marseille vs. Newcastle
Interestingly, the opponents have performed differently in European competitions and domestic leagues. Marseille is contending for the top spot with PSG in Ligue 1, but they have struggled to make an impact in the Champions League. Conversely, Newcastle is in the lower half of the Premier League table but is competing for a top-8 spot in the Champions League group stage. I believe Newcastle's focus on the continental tournament is evident, and I think Eddie Howe's side will at least avoid defeat in the upcoming match.
The English side not only won their last three matches in this European competition comfortably but did so by at least a two-goal margin. Newcastle has only conceded to Barcelona so far. Meanwhile, Marseille has lost 3 of their last 4 Champions League matches. Additionally, the French side has not impressed at home in this tournament, suffering 9 defeats in their last 13 home games. Therefore, the optimal choice is to bet on a draw no bet for the visitors.
My prediction – Newcastle with a handicap (0)
