The second leg of the 2025/26 Champions League round-of-16 tie between Manchester City (England) and Real Madrid (Spain) will take place on 17 March at the Etihad Stadium. The score in the first leg was 3:0 in favour of Real Madrid. Manchester City vs Real Madrid: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Manchester City
The home side were only better in the first leg in terms of possession—60% to 40%—as well as the number of corners—10:1. However, in the key metric—the scoreline—they came up short, and by a considerable margin—0:3. Everything points to a third successive season in which Manchester City will stumble against Real Madrid. To get past the Spanish side, they need to win by at least four goals, while a three-goal margin would only force extra time. We should also add an interesting fact—Manchester City have lost seven of their last 10 two-legged ties against La Liga opposition. In addition, Manchester City have previously only once lost the first leg of a European tie by a three-goal margin. That happened in the 2017/18 season, and the club also lost the second leg (against Liverpool—0:3 and 1:2).
- At least three goals have been scored in nine of the English side’s previous 13 matches in this competition.
- Manchester City have avoided defeat in 40 of their last 42 home matches in the Champions League (34 wins and six draws).
- The team have scored at least two goals at home in seven of their last eight matches in this European competition.
Potential Manchester City Lineup (4-1-3-2)
Gianluigi Donnarumma – Rayan Ait-Nouri, Matheus Nunes, Ruben Dias, Marc Guehi – Rodri – Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva, Rayan Cherki – Antoine Semenyo, Erling Haaland.
Defenders Rico Lewis and Josko Gvardiol, as well as midfielder Mateo Kovacic, are unavailable due to injury.
Real Madrid
Despite having a large number of injured players, the Madrid club dealt with the English side with ease and confidence in the first leg, knocking them out with a 3:0 win. All the goals in that match were scored by captain Federico Valverde before the break. In the return leg, the Spanish side will be satisfied with any result other than a defeat by three or more goals. Interestingly, Real Madrid have scored three goals in four of their last five Champions League play-off matches against Manchester City. In addition, the Madrid club have won 13 of their last 15 round-of-16 ties in this competition, and have also won the first leg in 10 of the previous 13 cases at this stage of the tournament.
- The Spanish side’s uncompromising run in this European competition stands at 27 matches (18 wins and nine defeats).
- At least three goals have been scored in six of Real Madrid’s last seven Champions League matches.
- The Madrid club have scored in the second half in seven of their last 10 away matches in this tournament.
Potential Real Madrid Lineup (4-4-2)
Thibaut Courtois – Trent Alexander-Arnold, Antonio Rudiger, Fran Garcia, Dean Huijsen – Aurelien Tchouameni, Thiago Pitarch, Arda Guler, Federico Valverde – Vinicius Junior, Brahim Diaz.
Due to injuries, forwards Kylian Mbappe and Rodrygo will miss the match, as will midfielders Jude Bellingham and Dani Ceballos, and defenders Ferland Mendy, Alvaro Carreras, Raul Asencio, David Alaba and Eder Militao.
Referee
Clement Turpin (France)
Matches – 7 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 32;
Yellow cards per match – 4.8;
Red cards shown – 0;
Fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 71%.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid: Match Prediction
The players from the English club looked visibly dejected after the match in Madrid. After all, overturning such a deficit—even at home—will be extremely difficult. Everything now depends on Manchester City’s wingers, who will have to produce the comeback in the second leg, as Antonio Rudiger looks set to neutralise Erling Haaland again. In the previous six head-to-head meetings, Manchester City have managed to beat the Spanish side in normal time only once, but in five of those matches both teams found the net. We suggest that the teams will score against each other once again.
What is more, Manchester City rarely leave their stadium without scoring. That has happened in 21 of their previous 23 home matches in the Champions League. However, the team have also conceded in five of their last seven home clashes in this competition. Real Madrid have been inconsistent away from home, but they have scored in their last three matches in this European competition. At the same time, in their last eight away Champions League games the Madrid club have only kept clean sheets against Kairat and Benfica.
Interestingly, if Real Madrid score, it will be their 100th goal against English teams in the history of this competition. We should also remind you of Erling Haaland’s goalscoring record: 56 goals in 57 Champions League matches, including 10 in his previous 11 meetings with Spanish teams. Therefore, the optimal pick is Both teams to score – Yes.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
