The second leg of the 2025/26 Champions League round of 16 tie between Manchester City (England) and Real Madrid (Spain) will take place on 17 March at the Etihad Stadium. The score of the first leg was 3:0 in favour of Real Madrid. Manchester City vs Real Madrid: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Manchester City
The English side were better in the first leg only in terms of possession — 60% to 40% — as well as in the number of corners taken — 10:1. However, in the key metric — the scoreline — they came up short, and by a significant margin — 0:3. Everything suggests that for a third consecutive season Manchester City will stumble against Real Madrid. To go through, the home team need to win by at least four goals, while a three-goal margin would only take the tie into extra time. We should also add an interesting fact — Manchester City have lost seven of their last 10 two-legged ties against La Liga opposition. In addition, the hosts have previously only once lost the first leg of a European tie by a three-goal margin. That happened in the 2017/18 season, and the club also lost the return leg (against Liverpool — 0:3 and 1:2).
- At least three goals have been scored in nine of the English side’s previous 13 matches in this tournament.
- Manchester City have avoided defeat in 40 of their last 42 home matches in the Champions League (34 wins and six draws).
- The team have scored at least two goals at home in seven of their previous eight matches in this European competition.
Potential Manchester City Lineup (4-1-3-2)
Gianluigi Donnarumma — Rayan Ait-Nouri, Matheus Nunes, Ruben Dias, Marc Guehi — Rodri — Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva, Rayan Cherki — Antoine Semenyo, Erling Haaland.
Defenders Rico Lewis and Josko Gvardiol are unavailable due to injuries.
Real Madrid
Despite a large number of injured players, the Madrid club dealt with the English side easily and convincingly in the first leg, knocking them out with a 3:0 scoreline. What is more, all the goals in the match were scored by captain Federico Valverde before the break. In the return leg, any result will suit the visitors except a defeat by a margin of three goals or more. Interestingly, Real Madrid have scored three goals in four of their last five Champions League knockout matches against Manchester City. In addition, the away side have won 13 of their last 15 round of 16 ties in this European competition, and they have also won the first leg in 10 of the previous 13 occasions at this stage of the tournament.
- The Spanish side’s uncompromising run in this European competition stands at 27 matches (18 wins and nine defeats).
- At least three goals have been scored in six of Real Madrid’s last seven Champions League matches.
- The visitors have found the net in the second half in seven of their previous 10 away matches in this tournament.
Potential Real Madrid Lineup (4-4-2)
Thibaut Courtois — Trent Alexander-Arnold, Antonio Rudiger, Fran Garcia, Dean Huijsen — Aurelien Tchouameni, Jude Bellingham, Arda Guler, Federico Valverde — Vinicius Junior, Brahim Diaz.
Due to injuries, forward Rodrygo, midfielder Dani Ceballos, and defenders Ferland Mendy, Raul Asencio and Eder Militao will miss the game. Forward Kylian Mbappe will be on the bench, and will only come on in an extreme case. Midfielder Jude Bellingham, as well as defenders Alvaro Carreras and David Alaba, have also been included in the matchday squad.
Referee
Clement Turpin (France)
Matches — 7 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) — 32;
Average yellow cards per match — 4.8;
Red cards shown — 0;
Fouls per match on average — 25;
Penalties — 71%.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid: Match Prediction
The English club’s players were clearly down after the match in Madrid. After all, overturning such a deficit — even at home — will be extremely difficult. Everything now depends on the wingers, who will have to produce a comeback in the second leg, as Erling Haaland, apparently, will once again be taken out of the game by Antonio Rudiger. In the previous six head-to-head meetings, Manchester City have only once managed to beat the Spanish side in normal time, but in five of those matches both teams found the net. We suggest that this time too the opponents will score against each other.
Moreover, the home team rarely leave their stadium without scoring. That has happened in 21 of their previous 23 home matches in the Champions League. However, the hosts have also conceded in five of their last seven matches at their ground in this tournament. Real Madrid have been inconsistent away from home, but they have scored in their previous three matches in this European competition. At the same time, in their last eight away Champions League matches, the Madrid club have only kept clean sheets against Kairat and Benfica.
It is interesting that if Real Madrid score, it will be their 100th goal against English teams in the history of this tournament. We should also recall the goalscoring record of Erling Haaland, who has 56 goals in 57 Champions League matches, with 10 of those coming in his previous 11 meetings with Spanish sides. Therefore, the optimal pick is Both teams to score – Yes.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
