Judging by the pattern of play, everything here points towards success for the hosts. Lille are currently better at maintaining the tempo, more often turn attacks into real chances and look noticeably sharper in the final third. Nice over this stretch are dropping off too easily without the ball, especially when the opposition press through the flanks and move the ball quickly around the box. On top of that, the visitors have personnel problems in midfield and defence, and against a team that have already scored 11 goals in four rounds, that is an unpleasant combination.
Confident Bet for the Match
In this set-up the most obvious option is a home win for Lille. The odds for a home win are holding at around 1.50–1.55, and that looks a workable choice. The hosts are on a run of four straight wins, while the visitors have just one victory in five rounds and have conceded 12 goals over the same stretch. This bet is backed up by both form and statistics.
Prediction: Lille to win
Additional Bet
If you want a higher-priced option, Lille individual total over 1.5 stands out. The hosts have cranked up their attacking play towards the end of the season, while Nice over this period are far too often suffering serious collapses in defence. For this scenario, two goals from Lille should be enough given the tempo and their recent form.
Lille Form and Lineup
Lille come into this match on a strong run. The team of Bruno Genesio have won four Ligue 1 matches in a row against solid opponents: Rennes (2:1), Marseille (2:1), Lens (3:0) and Toulouse (4:0). It is especially important that this surge has come right now, when the battle at the top of the table is very tight. Matias Fernandez-Pardo has also caught the moment, scoring in four of the last five league matches.
Key numbers:
- Four wins in a row in Ligue 1;
- 11 goals scored in the last four rounds;
- 49.5 xG for the season and the third-best xG difference in the league at 14.9.
Potential lineup (4-2-3-1): Berke Ozer — Thomas Meunier, Alexsandro, Aissa Mandi, Romain Perraud — Nabil Bentaleb, Benjamin Andre — Ngalayel Mukau, Hakon Haraldsson, Felix Correia — Matias Fernandez-Pardo.
Absentees: Marc-Aurel Caillard, Osame Sahraoui, Hamza Igamane and Ousmane Toure are out; Nathan Ngoy will miss the match through suspension.
Nice Form and Lineup
Nice are in a noticeably worse situation. Over the last five rounds they have only one win. In this period the team have scored just four goals and conceded 12. Within this sequence there were heavy defeats against Rennes (0:4), Paris Saint-Germain (0:4) and Strasbourg (1:3), and in the previous round there was only a draw with Le Havre (1:1). For an away trip to one of the form teams in the league, that is a poor backdrop.
Key numbers:
- Eight defeats in their last 10 away matches in Ligue 1;
- 12 goals conceded in the last five rounds;
- Only 37.9 xG for the season and an xG difference of minus 15.4 — one of the worst in the league.
Potential lineup (3-4-3): Yehvann Diouf — Antoine Mendy, Kodjo Peprah Oppong, Melvin Bard — Jonathan Clauss, Tom Luchet, Djibril Coulibaly, Ali Abdi — Elye Wahi, Sofiane Diop, Mohamed-Ali Cho.
Absentees: Dante and Moise Bombito are injured; Hicham Boudaoui and Morgan Sanson are both suspended; Charles Vanhoutte is doubtful for this round.
