The second-leg play-off tie in the 2025/26 Conference League between Lech Poznan (Poland) and KuPS (Finland) will take place on 26 February at Enea Poznan. The score in the first leg was 2:0 in favour of Lech Poznan. Lech Poznan vs KuPS: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Lech Poznan
The Polish side won the first match without much effort, beating the Finns 2:0 on their own ground. The team not only enjoyed more possession (60%), but also showed incredible determination to win, emphatically outclassing their opponents in shots on goal – 28:2. To reach the next round of the competition, the team simply need to avoid losing at home by more than one goal. It is also worth noting that Lech Poznan are unbeaten in this European competition across four straight matches (three wins and one draw). In addition, the last time the club played in the Conference League, it managed to reach the quarter-finals.
- Both teams to score has landed in 11 of the Polish side's last 13 matches in this competition.
- At least three goals have been scored in 11 of Lech Poznan's last 14 Conference League games.
- The club have scored two or more goals in nine of their last 12 matches in this European competition.
Potential Lech Poznan Lineup (4-2-3-1)*
Bartosz Mrozek – Joel Pereira, Wojciech Monka, Antonio Milic, Michal Gurgul – Taofeek Ismaheel, Antoni Kozubal – Luis Palma, Pablo Rodriguez, Filip Jagiello – Mikael Ishak.
KuPS
The Finns frankly collapsed in the home leg, losing to their opponents in almost every aspect of the game. Even on xG, they came up well short – 0.14:2.91. KuPS have now gone four matches without a win in this competition, losing twice and drawing twice in that run. The team have also failed to score in three of their last four matches in this European tournament. To go through, the Finns need a big win. If they manage to win by two goals, extra time will be required.
- Across their last nine Conference League matches, the Finns have picked up just one win (four draws and four defeats).
- At least one of the teams failed to score in eight of KuPS's last 11 games in this competition.
- The club are on a seven-match winless away run in this European tournament (three draws and four defeats).
Potential KuPS Lineup (4-4-2)*
Johannes Kreidl – Bob Arma, Arttu Lotjonen, Akseli Puukko, Taneli Hamalainen – Petteri Pennanen, Valentin Gasc, Niilo Kujasalo, Otto Ruoppi – Gustav Engvall, Jocelyn Luyeye-Lutumba.
Due to suspension, forward Jocelyn Luyeye-Lutumba is unavailable.
Referee
Vassilis Fotias (Greece)
Matches – 9 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second bookings) – 32;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.6;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 22%.
Lech Poznan vs KuPS: Match Prediction
We expect the Polish side to record another convincing win in the second leg of this two-match tie. Their superiority in the first match was simply too obvious, and the Finns were fortunate to lose by only two goals. Moreover, KuPS have been notably poor away from home even in the Conference League, where they have now gone seven straight matches without an away win. In that away run, the Finns have failed to score on five occasions.
Lech Poznan, meanwhile, are very strong on home soil. In this European competition the club have played 14 home matches and have suffered only one defeat (against Fiorentina), while recording 11 wins and two draws. In those home games, the Polish side have scored at least twice on 10 occasions. That is why we think a two-goal handicap on the hosts is a solid betting option for this clash.
Prediction: Lech Poznan (-1.5)
* For each team, the starting XI listed is from their previous match in this competition.
