The first leg of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League third qualifying round between Lech (Poland) and Red Star Belgrade (Serbia) will take place on August 6 at the Poznan Stadium. Lech vs. Red Star Belgrade: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Lech
In the second round of the Champions League qualifiers, the Polish side faced Iceland's Breidablik. After a resounding 7-1 victory in the first leg at home, the return leg was more of a formality, but Lech still managed to win. Overall, the team has participated in Europe's premier tournament eight times and has reached this stage of qualification twice before, yet has never advanced past it. Additionally, note that the Polish league has already started, with Lech collecting three points from two matches (1 win and 1 loss).
- The team has won 11 of their last 13 home matches in European competitions.
- The club has scored more than one goal in 9 of their last 12 home fixtures on the international stage.
- At least two goals have been scored in Lech's last five home games in European tournaments.
Predicted lineup for Lech (4-3-3)
Bartosz Mrozek – Alex Douglas, Wojciech Monka, Joao Gervasio Moutinho, Robert Gumny – Antoni Kozubal, Gisli Thordarson, Timothy Nur Ouma – Bryan Fiabema, Mikael Ishak, Filip Szymczak.
Red Star Belgrade
In the previous round of the Champions League qualification, the club faced Lincoln Red Imps. In the first leg away, they secured a narrow 1-0 victory despite playing much of the match with a man down. However, in the return leg at home, Red Star convincingly defeated their opponent 5-1. In the 21st century, the Serbian club has reached this stage of the qualifiers 11 times, failing to advance on eight occasions. Additionally, note that the Serbian league has already started, with Red Star winning their first two matches by a margin of more than three goals.
- The team has lost 8 of their last 10 away matches in the Champions League.
- The club has conceded at least two goals in 8 of their last 10 away games in this tournament.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Red Star's last 8 Champions League matches.
Predicted lineup for Red Star Belgrade (4-4-2)
Mateus – Veljko Milosavljevic, Milos Veljkovic, Rodrigo, Aleksandar Katai – Mirko Ivanic, Nair Tiknizyan, Rade Krunic, Timi Elsnik – Bruno Duarte, Felicio Milson.
Referee
Tobias Stieler (Germany)
Matches – 14 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 60;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.3;
Red cards shown – 4;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 29%.
Match Prediction: Lech vs. Red Star Belgrade
Lech has played only four matches at home in the Champions League, winning three of them. The team has also won 6 of their last 7 home matches in European competitions. In the previous qualifying round, they secured a resounding 7-1 victory at home. In the upcoming game, I believe they will at least avoid defeat, as their opponent has shown weak results away from home.
Red Star Belgrade has lost 8 of their last 10 away matches in the Champions League.
Additionally, note that even in the second-tier European tournament, the Europa League, they have lost their last four away games. Considering the Serbian team's away performance in European competitions and the home team's good form, my prediction is: Lech to win or draw
