The first-leg match of the Regional Path semi-final in the 2025/26 FONBET Russian Cup between Krylia Sovetov Samara and Lokomotiv Moscow will take place on 19 March at the Solidarnost Samara Arena. Krylia Sovetov Samara vs Lokomotiv Moscow: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Krylia Sovetov Samara
The Samara side were stronger than Orenburg in the previous round (2:0). That was the team’s first win in regulation time in their last seven Russian Cup matches (4 draws, 2 defeats). At the same time, Krylia Sovetov Samara have conceded in five consecutive games in this tournament. The club themselves have found the net in 10 of their previous 12 matches in the national cup. It is also worth adding that the last time the Samara side took part in the Regional Path semi-final was in the 2022/23 season, but they were unable to get past this stage.
- Both teams scored in 9 of Krylia Sovetov Samara’s last 12 Russian Cup matches.
- At home in this tournament, the club have failed to win in 90 minutes in 10 of their previous 11 matches (4 draws, 6 defeats).
- At least three goals were scored in 6 of the Samara side’s last eight home matches in the national cup.
Potential Krylia Sovetov Samara Lineup (5-4-1)*
Nikita Kokarev – Dominik Oroz, Sergei Bozhin, Tomas Galdames, Nikita Chernov, Dani Fernandes – Ilzat Akhmetov, Sergei Babkin, Kirill Stolbov, Artem Shumansky – Chinedu Jeffrey.
Forwards Jimmy Marin and Aleksei Sutormin are on the injury list.
Lokomotiv Moscow
The Moscow side knocked out the last remaining representative of the Russian First League in the previous round. The win over Arsenal Tula (2:1) was the team’s fifth in their last eight Russian Cup matches (1 draw, 2 defeats). We should note the scoring form of the Railwaymen: over that spell, the club scored at least twice in six matches. However, in four straight games in the national cup, the team coached by Mikhail Galaktionov have been unable to keep a clean sheet. It is also worth adding that the Moscow club have reached the Regional Path semi-finals for a second consecutive season.
- The team conceded no more than one goal in 6 of their last eight Russian Cup matches.
- Away from home, the Moscow side have won 5 of their previous seven matches in this tournament (2 defeats).
- Lokomotiv Moscow have conceded in 12 consecutive away matches in the national cup.
Potential Lokomotiv Moscow Lineup (4-3-3)*
Anton Mitryushkin – Maksim Nenakhov, Lucas Fasson, Cesar Montes, Evgeny Morozov – Danil Prutsev, Artem Karpukas, Sergei Pinyaev – Nikolai Komlichenko, Aleksandr Rudenko, Aleksei Batrakov.
Midfielder Sergei Pinyaev and defender Cesar Montes are injured.
Referee
Vladimir Moskalev (Russia)
Matches – 5 (Russian Cup, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 29;
Average yellow cards per match – 5.8;
Red cards shown – 1;
Fouls per match on average – 29;
Penalties – 40%.
Krylia Sovetov Samara vs Lokomotiv Moscow: Match Prediction
The Samara side continue to fight on two fronts, and while things are going relatively well in the national cup, matters in the league are only getting worse. In the last round of the Russian Premier League, the team coached by Magomed Adiev suffered a heavy defeat to a fellow relegation-zone rival and moved closer to the drop zone. In such a situation, a question arises: do the home side really need the extra workload? In the previous round, Krylia Sovetov Samara only got the job done after a red card for the opposition, and that win was the first in the club’s last 11 home matches in the Russian Cup (4 draws, 6 defeats). It is also worth adding that in more than half of the matches across that run, the club conceded at least three goals.
Lokomotiv Moscow also shipped three goals in the previous league round. That heavy defeat should provide extra motivation for the team coached by Mikhail Galaktionov. At the same time, squad depth allows the head coach to manage the workload properly across both competitions. That is reflected in the Railwaymen’s results, having won five of their last seven away matches in the national cup. It is important to note the level of the beaten opponents too – two Moscow clubs and Baltika Kaliningrad. Even against such opponents, the team scored at least two goals.
Prediction: Lokomotiv Moscow to win + Over 1.5 goals
* For each team, the starting XI listed is from their previous match in this tournament.
