The first leg of the 2025/26 Europa League round of 16 tie between Genk (Belgium) and Freiburg (Germany) will take place on 12 March at the Cegeka Arena. Genk vs Freiburg: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Genk
The Belgian side faced Dinamo Zagreb in the play-offs and made a serious bid to reach the round of 16 after an away win (3:1). However, in the return fixture the team lost by the same scoreline, and only two unanswered goals in extra time helped them progress. It is worth noting that the defeat in the last match ended the club’s run of three straight wins in the Europa League. In addition, for only the second time in their previous seven matches in this tournament, Genk scored fewer than two goals. Let us add that the club’s best-ever achievement in this competition is reaching the quarter-finals in the 2016/17 season.
- At least three goals were scored in five of the Belgian side’s last seven games in the Europa League.
- At home, Genk have failed to win nine of their previous 11 Europa League matches (three draws, six defeats).
- In six of their last eight home matches in this tournament, the club have not conceded more than one goal.
Potential Genk Lineup (4-3-3)*
Tobias Lawal – Zakaria El Ouahdi, Matte Smets, Mujaid Sadick Aliu, Joris Kayembe – Daan Heymans, Bryan Heynen, Ibrahima Sory Bangoura – Junya Ito, Robin Mirisola, Yira Sor.
Freiburg
The Germans finished seventh in the league phase. The team avoided defeat in seven of eight matches (five wins, two draws), but scored only 10 goals in the process. In terms of goals scored, Julian Schuster’s men were only 21st. However, Freiburg conceded just four goals, and only Viktoria Plzen have a better record in that regard (three). The club have reached the Europa League round of 16 for the third season in a row, but this stage has remained a stumbling block for them.
- At least one team failed to score in five of Freiburg’s last six Europa League matches.
- Away from home in this competition, the team have failed to win six of their previous seven matches (three draws, three defeats).
- In five of their last six away Europa League games, the club have not conceded more than one goal.
Potential Freiburg Lineup (4-5-1)*
Noah Atubolu – Bruno Ogbus, Christian Gunter, Matthias Ginter, Philipp Treu – Johan Manzambi, Maximilian Eggestein, Yuito Suzuki, Jan-Niklas Beste, Vincenzo Grifo – Junior Adamu.
Defenders Maximilian Rosenfelder, Lukas Kubler and midfielder Daniel-Kofi Kyere will miss out through injury. Midfielder Maximilian Eggestein is suspended.
Referee
Chris Kavanagh (England)
Matches – 12 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 46;
Yellow cards per match – 3.8;
Red cards shown – 1;
Fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 8%.
Genk vs Freiburg: Match Prediction
Freiburg could have been the only team to come through the league phase unbeaten. In the final round, Julian Schuster’s men lost to Lille, conceding the decisive goal from the penalty spot in stoppage time. The Germans also finished that match with 10 men, and it had no tournament significance for them anyway. We think the club will continue their confident march in the 2025/26 Europa League. Freiburg’s upcoming opponent has won only two of their last 11 home matches in this competition (three draws, six defeats), and Genk managed to beat only teams that had already ended their campaigns.
A major contribution to the Germans’ strong results has been their reliable defensive work. The team have kept four clean sheets, and on the road in this season’s edition of the tournament they have not conceded more than one goal in a single match. At the same time, Freiburg have looked very modest in attack. The Belgians will find it difficult to break down such a defence. Genk have not been prolific even against far less prestigious opponents, and at home in the Europa League the club have scored more than one goal in only two of their last eight matches.
Prediction: Freiburg, double chance + Under 3.5 goals
* For each team, the starting line-up listed is from their previous match in this competition.
