The Matchday 6 Bundesliga clash between Hamburg and Mainz will take place on October 5 at the Volksparkstadion. Hamburg vs. Mainz: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Hamburg
Merlin Polzin's side played out a goalless draw with Union in their last outing. As a result, Hamburg failed to secure a win in 4 of their last 5 Bundesliga matches (2 draws, 2 losses). Additionally, this was the fourth time this season that the team failed to find the back of the net. With five points, they are currently 13th in the league standings.
- The team has won 4 of their last 5 home matches in the Bundesliga.
- The club has conceded exactly 1 or 2 goals in 9 of their last 11 home games in this tournament.
- Hamburg has not scored more than one goal in 9 of their last 12 home Bundesliga matches.
Predicted lineup for Hamburg (3-4-3)
Daniel Heuer – Warmed Omari, Daniel Elfadli, Luka Vuskovic – Giorgi Gocholeishvili, Nikolai Remberg, Fabio Vieira, Miro Muheim – Jean-Luc Dompe, Ransford Königsdörffer, Ryan Philippe.
Defender Warmed Omari will miss the match due to injury. Midfielder Fabio Vieira is suspended.
Mainz
Bo Henriksen's side suffered a 0-2 home defeat to Borussia Dortmund in their last match. This marked Mainz's third defeat in the current Bundesliga campaign, each time without scoring. Moreover, this was the first time this season that the club conceded more than one goal. Notably, Mainz has not kept a clean sheet in their last 16 Bundesliga matches. They are 14th in the standings with four points, all of which were earned away from home.
- At least three goals have been scored in 6 of their last 8 away Bundesliga matches.
- The team has conceded in their last eight away league games.
- Mainz has not lost the second half in 10 of their last 11 away Bundesliga matches (6 wins, 4 draws).
Predicted lineup for Mainz (3-4-3)
Robin Zentner – Danny da Costa, Andreas Hanche-Olsen, Maxim Leitsch – Silvan Widmer, Nadiem Amiri, Kaisu Sano, Philipp Mwene – Lee Jae-sung, Paul Nebel, Armindo Sieb.
Defender Anthony Caci will miss the match due to injury. Goalkeeper Robin Zentner is suspended.
Referee
Robert Hartmann (Germany)
Matches – 16 (Bundesliga, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 59;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.7;
Red cards shown – 5;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 31%.
Hamburg vs. Mainz: Match Prediction
Since returning to the Bundesliga, Hamburg has struggled to create scoring opportunities, netting only two goals in the first five matches of the current season, making them the lowest-scoring team. However, they have shown defensive resilience, with only one defensive lapse occurring in an away match against Bayern Munich. Additionally, they have kept two clean sheets in the current Bundesliga campaign.
Mainz has not been impressive in attack either, scoring five goals in five matches this season, with four of those coming against Augsburg, who are in the bottom three of the standings. At the same time, Mainz has been relatively solid defensively, conceding only six goals in the current Bundesliga season, trailing only Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund (3 goals each).
I do not expect this to be a high-scoring match, so my prediction: Total under 2.5 goals
