Cruzeiro Form and Squad
Cruzeiro have found decent rhythm. The team coached by Artur Jorge have lost only once in their last five matches, but it was that defeat which came in the Copa Libertadores. However, against Universidad Catolica (1:2) there was probably some underestimation of the opposition and a lapse in concentration at the end. The hosts went in as favourites (1.40 odds), enjoyed 67% possession, created 2.19 xG but conceded twice from 0.89 xGA, with the decisive goal coming in the 94th minute. The main problem for the blue-and-whites is excessive dependence on Matheus Pereira in attack. The club’s forwards are quiet, and it is Pereira who has scored both of the team’s goals in the current edition of the tournament, even though the hosts have generated 4.32 xG across two matches.
Key numbers for Cruzeiro:
Over their last seven matches in all competitions, Cruzeiro have scored 10 goals, seven of which came in the second half.
The blue-and-whites have received seven yellow cards in two Copa Libertadores games, with only Universidad Catolica having more (eight).
The hosts win an average of two corners per game, with only Universidad Central having fewer (1.5 per match).
Potential lineup (4-2-3-1): Matheus Cunha — Kaua Moraes, Fabricio Bruno, Lucas Villalba, Kaiki — Gerson, Matheus Henrique — Christian, Matheus Pereira, Wanderson — Neycer Villarreal.
Out: Cassio, Marquinhos (injury).
Boca Juniors Form and Squad
The Argentinian giants currently look almost untouchable. Their unbeaten run has stretched to 14 matches, and the team’s defence resembles a concrete wall — they have won their last three games without conceding. Even the absence of first-choice goalkeeper Agustin Marchesin has not been a problem: young Leandro Brey is showing impressive composure. In attack there is no standout leader, but Leandro Paredes is performing well, having scored against Universidad Catolica (2:1), and defender Lautaro Blanco has three assists and leads the Copa Libertadores in this metric.
Key numbers for Boca Juniors:
Boca Juniors have won five of their last six away matches.
In four of their previous five games, the Argentinian club have won the first half.
The team coached by Claudio Ubeda have scored five goals in two group matches, with only Flamengo doing better with six.
Potential lineup (4-4-2): Leandro Brey — Marcelo Weigandt, Lautaro Di Lollo, Ayrton Costa, Lautaro Blanco — Santiago Ascacibar, Leandro Paredes, Milton Delgado, Tomas Aranda — Adam Bareiro, Miguel Merentiel.
Out: Agustin Marchesin, Ander Herrera, Carlos Palacios, Edinson Cavani (injury).
Cruzeiro at home have to play aggressively. Their home statistics inspire optimism, but the defeat to Universidad Catolica showed that against compact and experienced teams the Brazilian side can lose their way. Matheus Pereira will need maximum support from the flanks to stretch Boca’s tight defence. However, the home side’s high defensive line is exactly what the Argentinians need for their trademark breaks.
Boca Juniors are in perfect psychological shape. Their status as group leaders allows the visitors to play pragmatically. Given that Boca score in every away match, the defence led by Fabricio Bruno can expect a very difficult evening. Historically, meetings between these sides are fiercely contested: in two of the last three head-to-head matches, both clubs have found the net.
Despite Cruzeiro having favourite status in terms of the odds (2.40 against 3.45), the visitors’ current form appears more convincing. We expect a match in which the hosts will dominate possession, but the Argentinians are sure to find their chance in transition.
Confident Bet
Both teams approach the match with high motivation and excellent physical condition. Cruzeiro’s attacking potential at home and Boca’s incredible scoring record away (14 consecutive games with goals) make a bet on both teams to score the most logical option.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
Alternative Bet
Boca Juniors are unbeaten in 14 matches, and their pragmatic style is perfectly suited to away fixtures in the Copa Libertadores. Given the flawless start the visitors have made in the group, they are at least unlikely to lose in Belo Horizonte.
Prediction: Boca Juniors, double chance
