The first leg of the 2024/25 Champions League playoff between Brest (France) and PSG (France) will take place on February 11 at the Stade du Roudourou in Guingamp. Brest vs. PSG: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Brest
The club's debut season in the Champions League can already be considered a success. The team managed to qualify for the tournament's playoffs, securing four wins, one draw, and three losses in the group stage. However, it's worth noting that the French side only defeated one opponent who also advanced to the playoffs (PSV). Additionally, Eric Roy's team lost their last two group stage matches, falling to Shakhtar (0-2) and Real Madrid (0-3).
Midfielder Jonas Martin and defender Bradley Locko are sidelined with injuries.
- At least one team failed to score in the last four matches of the team in this tournament.
- No more than three goals were scored in Brest's last six Champions League matches.
- The club has not won the second half in six previous games in this European competition (4 draws and 2 losses).
Predicted lineup for Brest (4-3-3)
Marco Bizot – Soumaila Coulibaly, Massadio Haidara, Brendan Chardonnet, Kenny Lala – Hugo Magnetti, Pierre Lees-Melou, Mahdi Camara – Abdallah Sima, Kamory Doumbia, Ludovic Ajorque.
PSG
The Parisians secured a spot in the top 24 only at the end of the group stage. Luis Enrique's side won their last three matches, defeating Salzburg (3-0) and Stuttgart (4-1) away, and claiming a comeback victory over Manchester City (4-2) at home. It's worth mentioning that PSG has consistently reached the playoffs in the last 13 Champions League seasons. Last season, the team reached the semi-finals, where they lost to Borussia Dortmund (0-1, 0-1).
Midfielder Warren Zaire-Emery and forward Ibrahima Mbaye will miss the match due to injuries.
- No more than three goals were scored in 8 of PSG's last 10 games in this European competition.
- The number "1" appeared in the final score in 8 of PSG's last 11 Champions League matches.
- The club has conceded in 22 of their last 23 away matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for PSG (4-3-3)
Gianluigi Donnarumma – Nuno Mendes, William Pacho, Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos – Fabian Ruiz, Vitinha, Lee Kang-In – Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembele.
Referee
Irfan Peljto (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Matches – 10 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 43;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.3;
Red cards shown – 4;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 60%.
Match Prediction: Brest vs. PSG
PSG has been fortunate with the draw, as they often face challenges against strong opponents in the playoffs, especially away. In these playoff matches, the team will face compatriots, against whom PSG has an excellent head-to-head record. Since the 2010/11 season, when Brest occasionally entered Ligue 1, the teams have met 20 times in the French league and cup competitions, with PSG never losing to this opponent (18 wins and 2 draws).
Notably, Brest has lost all nine previous official home encounters against the Parisians. PSG has won by a margin of two or more goals six times during these matches. Additionally, the capital club has scored at least two goals in 16 of their last head-to-head encounters in Ligue 1 and the French Cup.
I have no doubt that in the first leg, PSG will prevail and score at least two goals. The team is in good form and has yet to suffer a defeat in the league, where they are confidently leading, while Brest sits mid-table and may miss out on European competitions next season.
My prediction – PSG to win and total over 1.5 goals
