The first leg of the 2024/25 Champions League playoff between Brest (France) and PSG (France) will take place on February 11 at the Stade du Roudourou in Guingamp. Brest vs. PSG: prediction, statistics.
Brest
The club's debut season in the Champions League can already be considered a success. The team managed to qualify for the tournament playoffs, securing four wins, one draw, and three losses in the group stage. However, it should be noted that the French side only defeated one opponent who advanced to the playoffs (PSV). Additionally, Eric Roy's men lost their last two group stage matches, falling to Shakhtar (0-2) and Real Madrid (0-3).
Midfielder Jonas Martin and defender Bradley Locko are in the club's infirmary.
- At least one team failed to score in the team's last four matches in this tournament.
- No more than three goals were scored in Brest's last six Champions League matches.
- The team has not won the second half in their last six European matches (4 draws and 2 losses).
Predicted lineup for Brest (4-2-3-1)
Marco Bizot – Luc Zohore, Abdoulaye Ndiaye, Brendan Chardonnet, Kenny Lala – Hugo Magnetti, Pierre Lees-Melou – Abdallah Sima, Romain Faivre, Romain Del Castillo – Ludovic Ajorque.
PSG
The Parisians secured their place in the top 24 only at the end of the group stage. Luis Enrique's side thrashed Salzburg (3-0) and Stuttgart (4-1) away, and claimed a comeback victory over Manchester City (4-2) at home. It's worth noting that PSG has consistently advanced to the playoffs in the last 13 Champions League campaigns. Last season, they reached the semifinals, where they were defeated by Borussia Dortmund (0-1, 0-1).
Midfielder Warren Zaïre-Emery will miss the match due to injury.
- No more than three goals were scored in 8 of PSG's last 10 European matches.
- The number "1" appeared in the final score in 8 of PSG's last 11 Champions League matches.
- The club conceded in 22 of their last 23 away matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for PSG (4-3-3)
Gianluigi Donnarumma – Nuno Mendes, William Pacho, Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos – Fabian Ruiz, Vitinha, Lee Kang-In – Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembélé.
Referee
Irfan Peljto (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Matches – 10 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 43;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.3;
Red cards shown – 4;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 60%.
Match Prediction for Brest vs. PSG
PSG was fortunate with the draw, as they often face challenges against strong opponents in the playoffs, especially away. In the playoff matches, they will face domestic rivals, against whom PSG has an excellent record. Since the 2010/11 season, when Brest began appearing in Ligue 1 periodically, the teams have met 20 times in league and cup competitions, with PSG never losing to this opponent (18 wins and 2 draws).
Notably, Brest has lost all nine of their previous official home matches against PSG. In six of those, PSG won by two or more goals. Additionally, the capital club has scored at least two goals in 16 of their last 17 head-to-head encounters in Ligue 1 and the French Cup.
I am confident that PSG will prevail in the first leg and score at least two goals. The team is in good form and remains unbeaten in the league, where they are leading comfortably, while Brest is mid-table and might miss out on European competitions next season.
My prediction: PSG Individual Total Over 2
Brugge
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Bayern Munich
