The first leg of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League semi-final between Barcelona (Spain) and Inter Milan (Italy) will take place on April 30 at the Lluís Companys Olympic Stadium. Barcelona vs. Inter Milan: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Barcelona
Hans Flick's team advanced to the semi-finals by overcoming two rounds in the playoffs. First, Barcelona defeated Benfica (1-0 and 3-1), and then they outplayed Borussia Dortmund (4-0, 1-3). The loss in the second leg against the Germans was their first in the last 11 Champions League matches (9 wins, 1 draw). Notably, the club is leading the tournament in goals scored with a significant margin (37). Additionally, Barcelona's goal-scoring streak in the Champions League has reached 18 matches.
- The team has won in regular time in 8 of their last 11 home matches in the Champions League.
- At least three goals have been scored in 14 of the club's previous home games in this European competition.
- Both teams scored in regular time in 7 of Barcelona's last 10 home matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Barcelona (4-2-3-1)
Wojciech Szczęsny – Jules Koundé, Iñigo Martínez, Pau Cubarsi, Gerard Martin – Frenkie de Jong, Pedri – Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Raphinha Dias – Ferran Torres.
Defender Alejandro Balde and midfielders Marc Bernal and Marc Casado will miss the game due to injuries. Forward Robert Lewandowski is also out due to an injury.
Inter Milan
Like their opponents, the Milanese started the playoffs from the round of 16, where they faced Feyenoord. Simone Inzaghi's side confidently advanced past the Dutch team, winning both matches (2-0 and 2-1). Then they faced Bayern Munich. Inter won the first leg away 2-1 and held their advantage at home (2-2). The draw in the second leg ended a five-match winning streak for the club in the Champions League. Notably, Inter leads the tournament in the fewest goals conceded (5).
- The club has not lost in regular time in 8 of their last 10 away matches in the Champions League (5 wins, 3 draws).
- No more than two goals have been scored in 12 of the team's last 15 away games in this European competition.
- At least one of the opponents failed to score in regular time in 5 of Inter's last 6 away matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Inter Milan (3-5-2)
Yann Sommer – Yann Bisseck, Alessandro Bastoni, Francesco Acerbi – Federico Dimarco, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Nicolò Barella, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Denzel Dumfries – Lautaro Martínez, Marcus Thuram.
Defender Benjamin Pavard is unavailable due to injury. However, forward Marcus Thuram has recovered for the upcoming match.
Referee
Clément Turpin (France)
Matches – 15 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 45;
Average yellow cards per match – 3;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 53%.
Barcelona vs. Inter Milan: Match Prediction
The Catalans will look to leverage their home advantage in the first leg to build a comfortable lead ahead of the return fixture. At home, Barcelona is very strong and has only faltered once in the current Champions League campaign, drawing with Atalanta (2-2), while winning the other encounters. In fact, Barcelona won 4 out of 5 home matches in the current Champions League with large margins.
Inter Milan has shown good results away in the current Champions League, winning four out of six matches, but only once did Simone Inzaghi's team defeat a truly strong opponent (2-1 against Bayern Munich). Moreover, in head-to-head encounters with Barcelona on their turf in this European competition, the Milanese have always struggled: in the last six meetings, they suffered five defeats and managed only one draw. In four cases, the Italians couldn't even score against the Catalans. It's also worth noting that Inter is currently in a slump, having lost their last three domestic matches.
I see the hosts as the favorites for the upcoming match, so my prediction: Barcelona to Win
