The second leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid will take place on 3 March at Camp Nou. The score in the first match was 4:0 in favour of Atletico Madrid. Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Barcelona
The first meeting in Madrid ended in an unexpected rout. Barcelona suffered their heaviest defeat under Hans-Dieter Flick, with the German coach never having lost by such a margin at any point in his managerial career. The team also saw a 12-match unbeaten run in the Copa del Rey come to an end, not counting extra time (9 wins, 3 draws). In addition, the Catalans failed to score for the first time in their last 13 games in this competition. Now the club need a miracle to overturn a four-goal deficit. The last time Barcelona won by the same margin in the Copa del Rey was in February 2025, away to Valencia (5:0).
- At least two goals have been scored in five consecutive matches involving the Catalans in the national cup.
- The team have scored in 39 of their previous 40 home matches in this competition.
- Barcelona have failed to keep a clean sheet in five of the last six head-to-head meetings in La Liga and the Copa del Rey.
Potential Barcelona Lineup (4-2-3-1)*
Joan Garcia – Jules Kounde, Pau Cubarsi, Eric Garcia, Alex Balde – Marc Casado, Frenkie de Jong – Fermin Lopez, Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo – Ferran Torres.
Defender Eric Garcia is suspended. Defender Andreas Christensen, striker Robert Lewandowski, as well as midfielders Frenkie de Jong and Gavi are not ready due to injury.
Atletico Madrid
In the first leg, the Madrid side recorded their second emphatic win in the national cup within seven days. Earlier, the team thrashed Real Betis just as convincingly (5:0). Atletico have avoided defeat in at least 10 of their last 11 cup matches (9 wins, 1 draw), although it is worth noting that the only loss in that stretch came against Barcelona last spring. Even then, the club were beaten only 0:1. Now, to reach the final, it will be enough to avoid defeat by a margin of four goals, and Atletico have not suffered a collapse of that kind in the Copa del Rey since 2004, when the team failed to offer any resistance to Sevilla (0:4).
- Six of the Madrid side’s last eight matches in the Copa del Rey have produced over 2.5 goals.
- The club’s run of decisive results in this competition stands at five matches (4 wins, 1 defeat).
- At least one team failed to score in seven of Atletico’s last nine matches in the national cup.
Potential Atletico Madrid Lineup (4-4-2)*
Juan Musso – Nahuel Molina, Mark Pubill, David Hancko, Matteo Ruggeri – Marcos Llorente, Koke, Giuliano Simeone, Ademola Lookman – Julian Alvarez, Antoine Griezmann.
Midfielder Pablo Barrios is unavailable due to injury.
Referee
Ricardo de Burgos Bengoetxea (Spain)
Matches – 16 (La Liga and the Copa del Rey, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 63;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.9;
Red cards shown – 1;
Fouls per match on average – 23;
Penalties – 44%.
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid: Match Prediction
Barcelona were completely outplayed in the first leg. With nothing left to lose, the team will push forward from the opening minutes. That approach carries the risk that the hosts will have to cope with swift counter-attacks, and in Madrid there were serious problems with that. At home, the club should deliver a more cohesive performance. After all, in the Copa del Rey, Barcelona have suffered just one home defeat in the last 13 years, with 27 of 30 matches in that period ending in wins.
Atletico will surely continue to play on the back foot, even if they fall behind. The main task is to protect the aggregate advantage. At the same time, the visitors will have plenty of space, so we should see more than one well-executed counter-attack. The Madrid side have already scored 13 goals across four matches in this season’s Copa del Rey, and the club have every chance of improving those numbers here.
Prediction: Barcelona, double chance + Both teams to score – Yes
*For each team, the starting line-up from their last match in this competition is shown.
