The second leg of the 2024/25 Champions League Round of 16 between Atletico Madrid (Spain) and Real Madrid (Spain) will take place on March 12 at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano Stadium. The first match ended 2-1 in favor of Real Madrid. Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Atletico Madrid
Diego Simeone's side, despite losing the first leg 1-2, still have a good chance to continue their Champions League campaign. To do this, they need to beat their city rivals by at least two goals at home. If this derby ends with a one-goal victory for Atletico, extra time will be played. Notably, the defeat ended a five-match winning streak in this tournament. Additionally, the club has reached the Champions League quarter-finals in the last three seasons.
- The club's uncompromising streak in regular time in this European competition stands at 16 matches (11 wins and 5 losses).
- Both teams have scored in 6 of Atletico's last 7 Champions League games.
- At least three goals have been scored in 12 of Atletico's previous 90-minute matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Atletico Madrid (4-4-2)
Jan Oblak – Nahuel Molina, Axel Witsel, Jose Maria Gimenez, Robin Le Normand – Marcos Llorente, Rodrigo De Paul, Giuliano Simeone, Samuel Lino – Antoine Griezmann, Julian Alvarez.
Midfielder Koke will miss the match due to injury. Defender Clement Lenglet's participation is in doubt.
Real Madrid
After defeating their opponents in the first leg, the club extended their winning streak in this tournament to six matches. To advance to the next stage of the European competition, Carlo Ancelotti's side only needs to avoid defeat in the return leg. Interestingly, Real has only once progressed to the next stage of the Champions League playoffs after winning the first leg by a one-goal margin at the Santiago Bernabeu. Additionally, the Madrid team has qualified for the quarter-finals of this European competition in the last four seasons.
- At least three goals have been scored in Real's last six Champions League games.
- Both teams have scored in 7 of the club's last 9 matches in this tournament.
- The Madrid team has scored two or more goals in their last six matches in this European competition.
Predicted lineup for Real Madrid (4-3-3)
Thibaut Courtois – Ferland Mendy, Antonio Rudiger, Raul Asensio, Federico Valverde – Eduardo Camavinga, Aurelien Tchouameni, Lucas Vazquez – Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo Goes, Kylian Mbappe.
Due to injuries, defenders Jesus Vallejo, Eder Militao, and Dani Carvajal, as well as midfielder Dani Ceballos, are out. Midfielder Brahim Diaz's participation is in doubt (virus).
Referee
Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
Matches – 7 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 22;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.1;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 29%.
Match Prediction: Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid
Both teams deserve to advance, but only one Madrid club will reach the quarter-finals. In my opinion, it will be Real. Notably, Carlo Ancelotti has eliminated Diego Simeone five times in knockout clashes – more than any other coach in the world (in 2014 – in the Copa del Rey semi-final and the Champions League final, in 2015 – in the Champions League quarter-final, in 2023 – in the Copa del Rey quarter-final, and last year – in the Spanish Super Cup semi-final).
I'll also highlight the head-to-head statistics of these opponents at the official level. In the last 22 encounters, Atletico has won only twice. In the remaining matches, Real secured six victories, and there were 14 draws. Considering the dominance of draws in the Madrid derby, I assume that the return leg in the Round of 16 will also end in a draw, which would favor the visitors. However, I won't bet on a draw. Based on Real's better performance in the first leg, I suggest predicting that Carlo Ancelotti's side will not lose after 90 minutes.
My prediction – Real Madrid to win or draw
