The Matchday 35 clash in La Liga between Athletic and Alaves will take place on May 11 at the San Mames Stadium in Bilbao. Athletic vs. Alaves: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Athletic
The Basque side has kept clean sheets in their last two league matches. First, they defeated Las Palmas 1-0 at home, followed by a goalless draw away against Real Sociedad. Notably, Athletic has only lost once in their last eight La Liga fixtures, a narrow 0-1 defeat to Real Madrid. Ernesto Valverde's men are holding onto fourth place in the standings, with a four-point lead over Betis, who are sixth and outside the Champions League spots. Additionally, Athletic boasts the best defense in La Liga, having conceded just 26 goals.
- No more than two goals have been scored in 8 of Athletic's last 9 league games.
- At least one team failed to score in 6 of Athletic's last 7 La Liga matches.
- The first half ended in a draw in 7 of Athletic's last 9 league encounters.
Predicted lineup for Athletic (4-3-3)
Unai Simon – Aitor Paredes, Daniel Vivian, Andoni Gorosabel, Lekue – Benat Prados, Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Unai Gomez – Gorka Guruzeta, Inaki Williams, Alex Berenguer.
Midfielders Benat Prados and Oihan Sancet, along with forwards Inaki Williams and Nico Williams, are sidelined due to injuries. Andoni Gorosabel is suspended for this match.
Alaves
Eduardo Coudet's side also managed to keep clean sheets in their last two La Liga games and are unbeaten in their last three league matches. They drew 1-1 away to Sevilla, then secured a 1-0 win at home against Real Sociedad, followed by a goalless draw with Atletico Madrid. Alaves sit in 17th place in the standings, just three points clear of the relegation zone.
- Alaves have avoided defeat in 7 of their last 9 La Liga games (3 wins, 4 draws).
- No more than two goals have been scored in Alaves' last six league matches.
- The Basque side has not scored more than one goal in their last six league outings.
Predicted lineup for Alaves (4-4-2)
Antonio Sivera – Facundo Garces, Manu Sanchez, Nahuel Tenaglia, Santiago Mourino – Antonio Blanco, Jon Guridi, Ander Guevara, Carles Alena – Kike Garcia, Carlos Vicente.
Referee
Jose Luis Munuera Montero (Spain)
Matches – 17 (La Liga, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 85;
Average yellow cards per match – 5;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 35%.
Athletic vs. Alaves: Match Prediction
This match features teams from opposite ends of the table. Nevertheless, both clubs are motivated for the remaining fixtures and need additional points: the hosts aim to stay in the Champions League zone, while the visitors fight to retain their place in La Liga. The Basque derby is likely to be low-scoring. I believe Alaves will manage to keep the scoreline tight, as Athletic may be fatigued and disappointed after their Europa League exit.
In their last nine league matches, Athletic has only once played over 2.5 goals. During this period, they have scored more than one goal in just one game. Similarly, Alaves' recent matches have followed a similar pattern – no more than two goals were scored in 9 of their last 10 La Liga games. Furthermore, no more than two goals have been scored in seven of their last head-to-head encounters in La Liga.
My prediction – Total under 2.5 goals
