The first leg of the English League Cup semi-final between Arsenal and Newcastle will take place on January 7 at the Emirates Stadium in London. Arsenal vs. Newcastle: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: Craig Pawson (England)
Matches – 12 (Premier League, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 52;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.3;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 25%.
Predicted lineups for Arsenal vs. Newcastle
Arsenal (4-3-3): David Raya – Kieran Tierney, Thomas Partey, Jurrien Timber, Jakub Kiwior – Jorginho, Ethan Nwaneri, Mikel Merino – Raheem Sterling, Leandro Trossard, Gabriel Jesus.
Newcastle (4-3-3): Nick Pope – Lewis Hall, Valentino Livramento, Fabian Schar, Dan Burn – Joelinton, Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes – Jacob Murphy, Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon.
Each team's starting lineup in their previous match in this tournament is listed.
Arsenal
The Gunners have confidently progressed through all three previous stages of the English League Cup. The team thrashed Bolton (5-1) and Preston (3-0), and in the quarter-finals, they overcame Crystal Palace at home (3-2). The last time the Londoners played in the semi-final of this tournament was three years ago, but they failed to get past Liverpool (0-2 and 0-0). The club last reached the final in the 2017/18 season, losing at Wembley to Manchester City 0-3.
Forwards Raheem Sterling and Bukayo Saka, as well as defenders Takehiro Tomiyasu and Ben White, will miss this match due to injuries.
- At least three goals have been scored in 7 of Arsenal's last 9 home matches in the English League Cup.
- The Londoners have not lost in 9 of their last 12 matches in this tournament (8 wins and 1 draw).
- At least two goals have been scored in the second half in 8 of Arsenal's last 9 home games in this cup.
Newcastle
Eddie Howe's side has played four rounds of the English League Cup this season, eliminating three Premier League teams. They started with an away win over Nottingham Forest (1-1, pens. 4-3), then defeated AFC Wimbledon (1-0), Chelsea (2-0), and Brentford (3-1) at home. If the team overcomes Arsenal over two legs, they will reach the final for the third time in their history. The previous two attempts to win the tournament were unsuccessful (in 1976 and 2023).
Forward Callum Wilson and goalkeeper Nick Pope, as well as defenders Jamaal Lascelles, Emil Krafth, and Sven Botman, will miss the match due to injuries.
- The club has not lost in regular time in seven consecutive matches in this tournament (5 wins and 2 draws).
- No more than two goals have been scored in 90 minutes in 10 of Newcastle's last 13 games in the English League Cup.
- The number "1" has appeared in the scoreline at the end of regular time in 6 of Newcastle's last 7 away matches in this cup.
Arsenal vs. Newcastle: Match Prediction
The Gunners will find it challenging to win the Premier League, as catching up with Liverpool, who are in excellent form, will be incredibly difficult. Therefore, the club should focus all efforts on winning the English League Cup, especially as they are just two steps away from victory in this tournament. I am confident that Arsenal will at least win at home against Newcastle, as the Londoners have not lost to this opponent at the Emirates in 13 meetings in the Premier League and FA Cup, securing 11 wins and 2 draws in this series. It is also worth noting that Newcastle has scored only one goal in their last nine encounters at this stadium in the league and FA Cup.
We cannot overlook the current form of these clubs. Arsenal has not lost at their venue for 17 official matches (14 wins and 3 draws). Meanwhile, Newcastle, despite winning three consecutive away games in the league, mostly defeated opponents lacking consistency and lower in the table. Therefore, I have no doubt in a home victory in the first match of this semi-final pair. My prediction: Arsenal to Win
