The Matchday 28 La Liga clash between Alaves and Villarreal will take place on 13 March at the Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz. Alaves vs Villarreal: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Alaves
Last weekend, the club suffered a very painful away defeat to Valencia (2:3). In the first match under Quique Flores, Alaves took the lead twice, but ended up conceding two late goals and failed to take a single point. That extended the Basque side’s winless run in the Primera Division to five matches, with just two points collected across that spell. The team remain 16th in the standings, with only a minimal gap to the relegation zone. Under certain scenarios, the club could finish the week in 18th place. It is also worth noting that since the start of the current La Liga season, Alaves have scored 25 goals – only Getafe (23) and Real Oviedo (17) have a worse tally.
- The Basque side have failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 straight league matches.
- At least two goals have been scored in each of the team’s last seven matches in this competition.
- Alaves have won with a (+1.5) handicap in 17 of their last 18 home Primera Division games.
Potential Alaves Lineup (4-4-2)*
Antonio Sivera – Jonny Castro, Carlos Benavidez, Jon Pacheco, Nahuel Tenaglia – Antonio Blanco, Carles Alena, Jon Guridi, Angel Perez – Toni Martinez, Lucas Boye.
The suspensions of defenders Viktor Parada and midfielder Pablo Ibanez have come to an end, but now defender Jon Pacheco and midfielder Ander Guevara are serving bans. Defender Carlos Benavidez is a doubt for the match.
Villarreal
Their last league match ended with a home win over Elche (2:1). Villarreal have won three of their last four matches in this competition, with the only slip-up coming away to leaders Barcelona (1:4). The Castellon side continue their intense battle for the bronze medals. The team are currently fourth in La Liga and trail Atletico Madrid purely on goal difference. Their scoring record is also worth highlighting, as the Valencian outfit have netted 50 goals in total in the current Primera Division campaign – only Real Madrid (56) and Barcelona (72) have more.
- Villarreal have scored in seven straight La Liga matches.
- The club’s run of decisive results in this competition has reached six games (four wins, two defeats).
- Six of the Castellon side’s previous seven La Liga matches have gone over the total.
Potential Villarreal Lineup (4-4-2)*
Luiz Junior – Santiago Mourino, Rafa Marin, Pau Navarro, Sergi Cardona – Alberto Moleiro, Santiago Comesana, Pape Gueye, Tajon Buchanan – Nicolas Pepe, Georges Mikautadze.
Defenders Juan Foyth and Logan Costa, along with forwards Ayoze Perez and Pau Cabanes, will miss out through injury.
Referee
Alejandro Quintero (Spain)
Matches – 13 (La Liga, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second bookings) – 64;
Yellow cards per match on average – 4.9;
Red cards shown – 9;
Fouls per match on average – 26;
Penalties – 31%.
Alaves vs Villarreal: Match Prediction
Alaves have long since lost their former defensive solidity and, as a result, have not kept a clean sheet in the Primera Division for more than three months. At the same time, in 2026 there have been signs of some progress in their attacking play. The Basque side are rarely left without a goal, so both teams have scored in seven of their last 10 league matches involving them. A similar trend can be seen at home, where both teams to score has landed in four of Alaves’ last five La Liga games at the Mendizorroza.
Villarreal maintain a solid scoring level, but at the same time they concede regularly, even when they are regarded as clear favourites. Over the previous 12 Primera Division rounds, the club have kept just one clean sheet, which came away to Levante (1:0). With that issue, the Castellon side need to be highly efficient in the final third. As a result, both teams have scored in six of Villarreal’s last seven La Liga matches.
It is also worth adding that the sides have traded goals in five of the last six head-to-head meetings at Alaves’ ground in La Liga. Most likely, that will be the case again this Friday.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
* For each team, the starting line-up from their previous match in this competition is listed.
