The Matchday 5 clash in the Russian Cup 2025/26 between Akhmat and Orenburg will take place on September 30 at the Akhmat Arena in Grozny. Akhmat vs. Orenburg: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Akhmat
In the previous round, the Grozny side suffered a 1-2 away defeat to Zenit. This marks their fourth loss in the last five Russian Cup matches (1 win), with Akhmat losing by the same scoreline each time. Notably, the club has scored in seven consecutive matches in this tournament. With three points, Stanislav Cherchesov's team is at the bottom of Group A, but they are only two points behind the second spot.
- At least three goals have been scored in 7 of Akhmat's last 8 Russian Cup games.
- The team has a 7-match uncompromising streak at home in this tournament (3 wins, 4 losses).
- The club has conceded in 12 of their last 14 home matches in the national cup.
Predicted lineup for Akhmat (4-5-1)
Vadim Ulyanov – Nader Ghandri, Darko Todorovic, Rizvan Utsiev, Turpal-Ali Ibyshev – Manuel Kelyanu, Brian Mansilla, Maxim Samorodov, Rifat Zhemaletdinov, Mehdi Zare – Mohamed Konate.
Orenburg
Vladimir Slishkovich's side defeated Rubin at home in the last round (0-0, 4-2 on penalties). However, in regular time, the team has won only two of their last 11 Russian Cup matches (1 draw, 8 losses). It was the first time in the current tournament that Orenburg managed to keep a clean sheet. In Group A, the club is in second place, but they have conceded the most goals – 8.
- The team scored in 5 of their last 7 national cup games.
- Orenburg lost 6 of their last 7 away matches in the Russian Cup (1 win).
- In 5 of their last 7 away games in this tournament, Orenburg conceded at least two goals.
Predicted lineup for Orenburg (4-4-2)
Nikolai Sysuev – Alexey Tataev, Danila Vedernikov, Nikolai Koserik, Emil Tsenov – Georgy Zotov, Dmitry Rybchinsky, Vladislav Kamilov, Vladan Bubanja – Alexandre Jesus, Atsamaz Revazov.
Referee
Mikhail Cheremnykh (Russia)
Matches – 7 (Russian Cup, 2024/25 - 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 21;
Average yellow cards per match – 3;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 43%.
Akhmat vs. Orenburg: Match Prediction
In Group A, the top spot is already decided. The underdog will likely be determined only in the final round. In the upcoming game, I believe Grozny has a better chance of earning points. The home advantage could play a key role. Akhmat has remained unbeaten in 13 of their last 15 official home matches (8 wins, 5 draws). Additionally, they have defeated Orenburg in 6 of their last 8 head-to-head encounters in the Russian Premier League and the Russian Cup.
Orenburg, on the other hand, has only two wins in their last 26 official away matches (3 draws, 21 losses). These results are largely due to defensive issues. Orenburg conceded at least two goals in 6 of their last 8 away matches in the Premier League and national cup. In the current edition of the second most prestigious Russian tournament, the club has conceded 8 goals, only surpassed by Sochi (12) among all group stage participants.
My prediction: Akhmat will not lose and Total Over 1.5 goals
