Poirier vs. McGregor: Bets and Odds on the Fight

The third meeting between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor will take place on July 10th at UFC 264 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main cards will start at approximately 11:00 p.m. EST. Like the previous two fights, Poirier again comes into UFC 264 as the underdog, despite winning his last two matchups. 

The first meeting between the two took place on September 27, 2014, where the Irishman won by technical knockout in the first round. The method of victory was the same on January 23, 2021, only with Dustin Poirier taking that one in the second round. 

Odds for the fight McGregor - Poirier

Despite being defeated at UFC 257, Conor is once again the sportsbook favorite at around 3/4 (1.75). Because Dustin has been on a bit of a winning streak (since his last defeat to Khabib Nurmagomedov), he is only slightly the undedog listed at around 11/10 (2.1) 

The odds on a draw between the fighters are available but only for the brave, standing at about 50/1. UFC President Dana White, for one, would be delighted with the idea of the first ever fighting tetralogy (four parts in MMA history, but this outcome seems to be near impossible. 

Tale of the Tape: Poirier vs McGregor

Due to Conor’s more closed and compact fighting stance during the rematch, it would seem that Poirier should have an advantage in both height and reach. However, the reality is different. Both fighters are the same height, and McGregor’s reach is 5 cm longer. The second fight did serve as a good example of how a poor stance choice can neutralize previous physical advantages. 

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Conor McGregor

• Former UFC light and featherweight champion, and the first fighter in UFC history to receive $1 million for entry into the Octagon.
• Among the fastest knockouts in MMA history, two from Conor: Jose Aldo - 13 seconds, Patrick Doherty - 4 seconds.
• Received $ 30 million for a boxing fight with Floyd Mayweather.
• Professional record: 27 battles, 22 wins, 5 losses.

The first fight between McGregor and Poirier will forever be remembered as a bright spot of the UFC, and the rematch enflamed the grandstand matchup between the two fighters even further. For the conclusion of the trilogy, there is great expectation that it will be something special. 

What is Conor McGregor’s Current Form?

Conor, as always, keeps fans updated with new workout photos. He is not depressed, and on the contrary he is teeming with revenge. McGregor hardly needs another UFC belt, but his ego will definitely want him to shine in the third meeting. The inclusion of a big paycheck does not hurt either. 

Conor has promised to carry out a lot of heavy work to find a way to counter the Poirier low kicks. The main problems though were his endurance and stamina, which failed him in the rematch. It seems for the Irishman there is only one way out, and that is to maximize the accuracy of his blows. 

What to expect from McGregor in a fight with Poirier?

The main thing will be putting Poirier under pressure from the very start. In the rematch Conor did not complete any of his attacks, several times letting the stunned Poirier go free. This showed us a flaw in Conor’s technique, the lack of a final combination.

Last time, his blows came from a medium or long distance, but, as it turned out, their power and frequency were not enough to knock Poirier down. In the fights with Diaz and Alvarez, Conor's final actions were much more confident and he went in for the kill.

This time it is likely he will not hold back again and he will try to connect his legs more often  leaving the line of fire, instead of mindlessly taking punches. 

McGregor's Chances of Winning

There should be no assumptions that a guaranteed and unconditional victory awaits McGregor. Far from it. It makes sense that McGregor is the favorite, but by just a small margin, in % terms it is 53% to 47% so not a lot in it. His accuracy and speed are still at a high level, and with a competent defense plan, there is probably enough to outfight the more straightforward Poirier, who is unlikely to show anything new. 

McGregor knows that a loss here could bring irreparable damage to the Irishman’s beloved legacy. A defeat here would make an unwanted lasting impression. 

McGregor's last five fights

Career breaks are clearly not good for Conor. In five years, he has participated in only five fights, winning three. There were two knockouts (Cerrone and Alvarez) and one protracted fight against Nate Diaz.

The losses were in a rematch with Porier, as well as in a title fight against Nurmagomedov.

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Dustin Poirier

• Former interim UFC lightweight champion. 
• Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
• Winner of 12 different UFC post-match bonuses.
• Professional record: 32 fights, 26 wins, 6 losses.

Unlike his opponent, Poirier is still hungry for a title and is looking forward to completing the trilogy (in his favor) in order to earn a  fight with the winner of the Oliveira-Chandler pair.

What is Poirier’s Current Form?

Even during long breaks between fights, Dustin keeps himself in great shape. His cardio is significantly better than Conors, and it's unlikely that this component of his game needs to be tightened more. 

His main task will be to think over a game plan for the third fight, because the ease of the last fight will be unlikely. There is the possibility that Poirier’s coaching staff will decide to switch the focus to a more heavy ground game. 

What to expect from Poirier in a fight with Conor?   

The fighter from Lafeyette, Louisiana’s victory in the second fight, unfortunately, did not come about from his excellent technique or striking. Poirier missed many strikes and looked lost in the first round. He must understand perfectly well that McGregor could finish him off in these moments. 

What really worked well for Dustin were the quick takedowns, which clearly cut out the Irishman’s breathing and made him visibly nervous at the beginning of the fight. Against Conor, Dustin should show no hesitation, and go for the shock win as quickly as possible. 

As for the third matchup, no major changes are foreseen here, except that this time it will be a little more closed during exchanges.

Dustin's Chances of Winning

Many fans are confident that the UFC leadership is ready to do everything to make Conor the winner of the Porier trilogy. We urge you not to believe the rumors or conspiracy theories when it comes to MMA betting. 

Dustin has a chance to repeat his success, but for this he needs a new gameplan. He has great speed and his side kicks worked great against Conor's standing defense. However, he has to do everything possible to put the Irishman in an uncomfortable position from the very start. If he is able to do this he will have a chance of success.

Chances are high that we will indeed see a more focused and aggressive version of McGregor. He will probably be focused not on a drawn-out fight, but on a quick knockout. Irish coach John Kavanagh can take this moment into account, and then it will be extremely difficult for Dustin to defend against Mac's retaliatory attacks on counterattacks.

Poirier's Last Five Fights

In the last five appearances, Porier has received two knockouts and won twice by decision. Holloway and Hooker were able to withstand all five rounds against Diamond; Alvarez and McGegor went to the floor - both in the second round.

The only one who was able to interrupt Dustin's winning streak was the undefeated former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. 

Frequently asked questions about Poirier vs. McGregor