Catch-up strategy: pros, cons, examples
«Catch-up » is a strategy in which the size of each subsequent bet depends on the results in previous bets. Each new bet should at least override the loss of the previous bets of the same chain and bring profit from above.
At the basis of the paddock is the casino system with equal odds at odds 2.0, known as the Martingale strategy.
How the strategy works
The game begins with the selection of the nominal bet and the selection of the event for the paddock. Then, after each loss, the player must increase the bet so that in the event that he wins he will recoup all the past losses in this series and start to gain an income.
At the rate of 2.0 (classic Martingale) and the sum of the first bet of 10 units, the betting value chain will look like this: 10/20/ will be equal to the initial denomination.
This sum chain works at a factor of 2.0. Calculating the right amounts with different coefficients is most convenient to produce according to the following formula:
S - is the amount of bet required.
X - is the amount of potential gain from the first bet.
Y - is the sum of all previous losses.
K - is the coefficient of the upcoming event.
For example, we have the second iteration (i.e. the second bet after losing the first one). We bet the first bet of 10 units with a factor of 1.85. That means we expected to win 8.5 units net (X). We have only 10 units (Y) (first losing bet) at this stage, and the event is 1.7 (K), for example.
Let's put the numbers in the formula:
The S-Y/K-1 is 8.5/10/1.7-1 q 26.42 units. That is, to meet all the conditions of expected profitability, the next bet requires 26.42 units.
Check: 26.42/1.7 q 44.92 units. The bookmaker will pay if the second bet is won. We take from this the amount of our costs (the size of the second bet, as well as the size of the first bet): 44.92 units. - 26.42 units. 10 units. 8.5 units. net profit as originally planned.
As you can see, the formula gave us a clear amount for the bet. Most importantly, do not forget to summarize all the losses (Y) to get the correct calculation.
After winning, the strategy provides for a return to the original nominal rate.
When the catch-up strategy is used
The most popular object of the catch-up is the totals. Here the principle of casino is even/odd or red/black, the only thing that the ratio is not always 2.0.
Also, many fans of the catch-up strategy like to use large odds. The probability of passing the bet there is somewhat lower, but the high ratio allows you to either claim a large profit, or apply a more gentle financial progression, prolonging the possibility of catch-up by several iterations. Most often "catch up" draw, also popular bets on removal and penalty shootouts in soccer.
If we are talking about sports, most often catch-up is appropriate in soccer, only because there are usually large limits, allowing to operate the necessary financial space. Australian leagues and tennis are also popular. Practice catch-up against a particular tennis player-favorite, if they believe that he should lose in the near future. High odds for such an outcome allow you to stay in the game for a long time, but do not guarantee the overall success.
Catch-up can be used not only in bets on a particular team, athlete, tournament. "Catch up" can be your own failures, increasing the bet each time, based on the coefficient, until the series of defeats is interrupted. It is also possible to catch up with a capper or a public expert who makes predictions if you think you have enough information to do so. It should be understood that following the advice of even a strong capper, you can get into a nasty losing streak. Just look at their statistics, where for every thousand perfect bets you can find at least one series of 8-10 defeats, which can be critical for your bank.
Pros of catch-up strategy
Catch-up is quite popular in the gaming environment largely due to the fact that it allows you to count on a balance plus, even if the total losing bets are more than the winning. Indeed, if your series is not delayed and you manage to keep each new catch-up within 5-7 iterations, then your pot will grow.
Consider the example on real games.
Take Salavat Yulayev from the KHL at the start of the 2016/2017 season. After 5 games the team had 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats against the greats CSKA and SKA. "SY" started a home four-match series, from which it was necessary to expect victories, not less than one - it is enough to try to catch up from the first game.
|Match||Кf.||Amount of bets s'X'Y/K-1||Total|
|Salavat Yulayev - Dinamo Riga||1.7||10||2-2|
|Salavat Yulayev - Jokerit||2.1||15.45||2-3|
|Salavat Yulayev - Dinamo Minsk||1.7||46.36||1-2|
|Salavat Yulayev - Admiral||1.75||105.08||4-2|
On the 4th variation, our bet won, and we received a payout of 183.89 units. We subtract all the amounts of bets (10-15.45-46.36-105.08) and get seven units of net profit, which we expected to receive at the first rate. Thus, this bet managed to earn 3.8% of the turnover.
Cons of the catch-up strategy
It is important to understand that sooner or later you will get to a series that will require more variations than originally planned, which can lead to financial collapse.
Another drawback of the system is that if your chain of paddock is tightened, you are forced to operate large sums to win a small face value.
It is also worth considering the psychological component, when you after each defeat you need to increase the bet and operate decent means. Your actions will be under pressure, and in this situation it is easier to make a mistake.
This system can be considered a win-win under two conditions:
1. Unlimited supply of money from the player;
2. No limits at the bookmaker.
Practice shows that this is basically impossible, because such a strategy carries enough risks.
Consider the KHL example from the start of the 2016/2017 season.
Severstal did a bit of a job in the transfer market in the off-season. It was quite reasonable to expect a decent start. It was possible to miss the opening game against Salavat Yulayev, which they lost, and start to "catch up" with a series of home games - there were as many as five.
|Match||Кf.||Amount of bets s'X'Y/K-1||Total|
|Severstal - Metalurh Mg||2.9||10||2-2|
|Severstal - Tractor||2.2||24.16||2-7|
|Severstal - Lada||2.1||48.33||3-3|
|Severstal - Petrochemist||2.1||92.25||0-2|
|Severstal - Ak Bars||2.8||107.63||2-2|
Five games have passed, the sum of 282.39 units has been invested, and the result has not been achieved. It is possible to stop and fix the loss, it is possible to continue to the victorious to repel his. That's just had to wait a long time.
Only in the 11th iteration did Severstal achieve victory. This would require a pot of 2,730 units. It would be necessary to operate such a sum for a net gain of 19 units.
|Маtch||Кf.||Amount of bets s'X'Y/K-1||Total|
|Vityaz - Severstal||2.9||167.4||1-1|
|CSKA - Severstal||5.3||109.02||5-2|
|SKA - Severstal||5.2||137.56||4-0|
|Ugra - Severstal||2.8||397.41||1-1|
|Barys - Severstal||2.7||654.55||2-1|
|Motorist - Severstal||2.8||981.8||2-4|
This example is a clear explanation of the reason why bookmakers do not particularly prevent players from using the strategy of dogwood by applying standard limits to leagues and sports.
With that said, we come to the conclusion that catch-up is a risky strategy that does not guarantee default profits. The best thing is to be considered as a tool in a game with a bookmaker with a clear limitation of risks and funds.